FXUS62 KTAE 230510 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 110 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 108 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Daily chances of showers and storms continue each day. Rain chances are lowest on Sunday, then increase through the workweek. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. && .UPDATE... Issued at 712 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Convection is lingering a bit later than expected and is developing a bit further north closer to the actual front. Nevertheless, expect it to be winding down over the next 2 to 3 hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered thunderstorms will develop through the rest of this afternoon, mainly along and southeast of a line from PAnama City to Tifton. This is where a weak surface trough is located, and this combined with the sea breeze will lead to slightly better coverage of showers and storms to the east. There's plenty of instability for the storms to work with this afternoon, but DCAPE is a mixed bag. It's lower ahead of the trough with a more moist atmosphere, and higher behind the trough where we're expecting lower coverage of storms. But, there is a rather tight gradient, so storms that form closest to the trough could have the better potential for strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph. Storms will wane after sunset. Some patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Sunday morning, mainly north of I-10. Then we await the arrival of a weak cold front sliding into our area on Sunday. Some drier air will make it into our northernmost areas tomorrow afternoon, keeping the better rain chances near the sea breeze or right along the front. There is some discrepancy in the hi- res guidance regarding coverage of storms during the afternoon hours. If storms can get going tomorrow afternoon, there will be good instability and some mid-level dry air to work with for some strong wind gusts in the strongest storms. Otherwise, it will be quite hot with many areas in the mid to upper 90s. But, the slightly lower humidity will keep our heat indices mostly in the 100-107 range, though a few places could peak around 108-110. Coverage of these higher heat indices is not enough to issue a Heat Advisory, however. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Heading into the upcoming workweek, we'll have a large ridge over the southwest US with weak disturbances riding up and around the ridge. That unfortunately places us in the northwest flow regime aloft, which can lead to round of more organized showers and storms in the form of MCSs. Thus, rain chances will increase next week to near or above seasonal normals, but exact timing of these disturbances is hard to pin down. If organized MCSs develop, then chances for strong to potentially severe storms would increase. Summertime heat and humidity will continue to roll along otherwise with highs in the lower half of the 90s and heat index values of 100- 107 each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Some IFR ceilings are possible overnight, but confidence isn't super high to include for now. Amendments are possible through dawn. Isolated showers and storms are in the forecast with PROB30s now in the TAFs at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will continue over the waters for the next several days. Scattered showers and storms are possible each day, mainly in the overnight and morning hours, decreasing in the afternoon. The main exception will be for any clustersof storms that move off the coast next week during the late afternoon or evening hours. Seas will remain around 1 to 2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through the next several days. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon, though pockets of high dispersions are possible near the I-75 corridor Monday into Tuesday as mixing heights increase. Isolated storms are possible Sunday with increasing coverage of storms again Monday and Tuesday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Some drier air moves into the area Sunday before moistening back up again Monday into Tuesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall . If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 97 74 94 / 10 60 30 80 Panama City 79 92 78 91 / 20 40 40 60 Dothan 74 95 73 93 / 10 50 20 60 Albany 73 96 73 94 / 10 40 30 60 Valdosta 73 96 73 95 / 10 20 30 70 Cross City 74 95 74 93 / 20 30 10 40 Apalachicola 79 91 78 90 / 0 30 20 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ012>015-027-112-114-115-118-127- 326-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young