FXUS62 KTAE 221725 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 125 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again for this afternoon and evening, mainly across Florida and far southern Georgia. The strongest storms are expected to produce wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. - A typical summertime pattern is expected for next week with highs in the mid 90s and isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening. A gradual increase in rain chances is expected later in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1039 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Not quite as hot today as the past several days, with no heat products necessary. Best chances for storms this afternoon still appear to target a southwest to northeast corridor stretching from near Mexico Beach into South Central Georgia, kicking off by mid- afternoon. MLCAPE in the 2500-3000j/kg range and DCAPE ~800j/kg will support a few strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon within this corridor as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 For today, an upper level shortwave will bisect our area from northeast to southwest. Therefore, rain chances will be highest for areas from Panama City to Tifton and southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive today compared to yesterday, some gusty winds could still occur with the strongest storms. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels. It will still be hot with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values of 100-107. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Sunday will be the driest day with precipitable water values dropping to the 1.2-1.5 inch range. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected for Sunday. What little activity occurs will likely be near the sea breeze. Highs will still be quite warm in the mid to upper 90s, but the lower dewpoints will keep most heat indices below the heat advisory of 108F, with the possible exception of along the coast. For Monday, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. Highs will still be in the mid 90s. Through much of the remaining part of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Afternoon thunderstorms activity most likely to impact KTLH and KVLD through early evening. Have remove prob30 from KDHN and KECP with lower risk at those terminals attm. Have left in some limited BR at northern terminals overnight given some slightly dryer air filtering in just above the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Scattered storms are expected for today with gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through today, then become more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again this afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated for Sunday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in on Sunday, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Locally heavy downpours will be possible with the storms this afternoon with isolated areas receiving a few inches of rainfall in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly in low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 97 74 96 / 40 10 10 40 Panama City 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 40 Dothan 73 97 72 95 / 10 10 10 40 Albany 73 97 72 96 / 20 10 10 20 Valdosta 72 97 72 97 / 20 10 10 40 Cross City 74 93 74 94 / 30 40 10 30 Apalachicola 78 92 79 92 / 20 30 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Camp MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD