FXUS62 KTAE 220504 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 104 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - Daily chances for thunderstorms remain in the forecast. Some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are expected with the stronger storms that develop. - The heat wave is poised to finally break with a more typical summertime pattern returning early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Forecast is generally on track this evening. No major updates were required. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 For the rest of this afternoon, a remnant MCV will slowly spin down over southeast Georgia just east of Lanier and Lowndes Counties. We'll be watching a shortwave moving southward around the ridge to our west, which will precede the larger trough over the Great Lakes that will move through on Saturday. This shortwave will help generate scattered to numerous showers and storms later this afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Some of this convection could become more organized into clusters or lines. DCAPE and instability should increase further into the afternoon hours, which will lead to a threat of strong downbursts. Also, low to mid-level lapse rates will steepen with cooler temperatures moving in aloft, which could lead to a threat of some hail. SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for this afternoon and evening for most of the area. Some of the guidance during the overnight hours has outflow from storms to our northwest moving into our area, which may help spark isolated to scattered showers and storms late tonight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. For Saturday, the shortwave moves more into our area, bisecting our area from northeast to southwest. So, rain chances will be more confined to areas from Panama City to Valdosta southward. While soundings aren't quite as impressive tomorrow, still a gusty wind and maybe small hail threat exist. Currently, there is no severe weather risk outlined for tomorrow from SPC. Drier air will sneak into our area as well, which should keep us below Heat Advisory levels for Saturday. If this holds, it would be the first day without a Heat Advisory in our area since August 10th. It will still be hot with highs in the lower half of the 90s with heat index values of 102-107. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Sunday and Monday will be the driest days with PWATs crashing to 1.2 to 1.5 inches. Thus, little coverage of showers and storms is expected Sunday and would occur mainly near the sea breeze. Monday, however, we'll have to watch if a shortwave rounds the ridge to our west and enters our area during the afternoon, which may help spark better coverage of showers and storms. The drier air will make it feel much more tolerable (until the sea breeze arrives). Highs will still be in the mid to upper 90s both days, but heat index values will only manage the upper 90s to 105 in most spots. Through much of the upcoming week, the ridge will remain off to our west, and we'll remain in northwesterly flow aloft. So, we'll continue to monitor for any ridge-riding disturbances, but our rain chances will gradually increase with a return to a summer pattern. Highs remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 102-108. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Some MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible near KDHN and KABY around sunrise this morning, so have included TEMPO groups there to account for that. Another round of afternoon showers and storms are forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are generally forecast to prevail outside of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Scattered storms are expected through Saturday, mainly in the overnight and morning hours. However, clusters of storms could move into the waters during the evening hours from land. Gusty winds and brief waterspouts are possible in the stronger storms. Otherwise, mainly gentle to occasionally moderate southwesterly breezes will continue over the next several days with seas around 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Generally light west to southwest transport winds will continue through Saturday, then more variable on Monday. Dispersions will remain good overall each afternoon. Scattered showers and storms are expected again Saturday afternoon, but decreasing coverage is anticipated both Sunday and Monday. Gusty, erratic winds and dangerous lightning strikes will be possible. Drier air will move in over the weekend, but RH values will stay above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall today and Saturday. If the storms are slow-moving, they could produce several inches of rain in a short period of time. This would lead to some nuisance to isolated flash flood concerns, particularly is low-lying or poor drainage areas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 97 73 97 / 0 10 0 20 Panama City 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 73 96 72 96 / 0 10 0 30 Albany 73 97 72 97 / 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 73 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 74 93 74 95 / 40 40 0 30 Apalachicola 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young