FXUS62 KTAE 200627 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 227 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - A HIGH RISK of rip currents at area beaches into the Memorial Day weekend. Beach- goers are urged to consult lifeguards on surf conditions and discouraged to enter the surf if red or double red flags are flying. - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Upper ridging extends from the Bay of Campeche northeast through the tri state region into the Carolinas and off the mid Atlantic coast. To the west, longwave troughing extends through the Rockies southwest to off the Baja coast. In between the trough and ridge lies a cold front from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas. This front will edge slowly over the next few days to northern Alabama and Georgia while the upper ridge shifts east. With the shifting of the ridge east into the weekend, this will allow higher PWATs (1.6- 1.8 inches) to shift from west to east through the area while drier air to also shift southeast into the Florida peninsula. Rain chances today will primarily be associated with the Emerald Coast seabreeze where higher PWATs reside with development in the mid afternoon hours shifting north into the evening hours. Rain chances Thursday and Friday will be relatively low (20-30%) before losing some of the influence of the ridge as it heads east. Rain chances gradually increase this weekend into early next week with the better chances Monday and Tuesday (30-60%) favoring seabreeze development and subsequent boundary interactions. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. In the meantime, upper high translates to off the southeast US coast Tuesday which will act as a suppressor once again towards mid week next week, especially in the eastern half of the area where PWATs fall to 1.2 inches east with 1.8 inches west. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Heat indices will run in the mid to upper 90s with around 100F in some spots this weekend with the increase in moisture. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of tonight. Patchy fog and lowered (IFR) cigs are possible at ECP and DHN around daybreak. Later in the afternoon, the same terminals will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Erratic winds and frequent lightning will be the main concerns. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for our remaining terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature into early next week. This will maintain light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas of 1-3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop thisafternoon first in the Florida panhandle and move north into southeast Alabama later today and then this evening across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Moving forward into the weekend, chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms increase with a majority of the districts standing at a 30-60% chance. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns. Afternoon dispersions are fair to good each day and afternoon humidities are well above critical levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 92 71 / 10 0 20 0 Panama City 87 72 87 73 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 90 69 90 68 / 50 20 10 10 Albany 91 69 92 70 / 10 0 20 10 Valdosta 92 70 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 Cross City 92 70 92 72 / 10 20 20 0 Apalachicola 85 73 86 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Haner