FXUS62 KTAE 200512 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 - Hot afternoon temperatures are expected through this weekend. Inland high temperatures will most commonly reach the 90 to 95 degree range. Minor to Moderate heat-related impacts are expected, affecting those who are sensitive to heat, and some health systems and industries. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. Coverage will then increase over this weekend into early next week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with stronger storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery currently shows two different maxima of moisture. The first maximum, characterized by PW values of 1.5 to 1.6 inches, is located along the U.S. 19 corridor from Perry FL down to the Suwannee. The second maximum, with PWs of 1.4-1.5 inches, is located west of the U.S. 231 corridor in FL and AL. These are the areas that will be favored for isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon and this evening. On Wednesday, drier mid-level air which water vapor imagery highlights east of the First Coast will migrate westward, nearly shutting down convection along the Nature Coast seabreeze. In contrast, the Emerald Coast seabreeze over the Panhandle will have even more moisture to play with. PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will support scattered PM thunderstorms, with southeast steering flow then taking storms northwestward into the Alabama Wiregrass. Given pockets of mid-level dry air, a favorable downdraft environment will support briefly strong convective gusts of 40-50 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Through Friday, the 500 mb pattern will feature a fairly sharp ridge axis extending from the SW Gulf to the NE Gulf, acting as a suppressor to PM seabreeze thunderstorm development. PM storms will be isolated at most. This weekend, the upper ridge axis will move east across the FL Peninsula and then east of FL early next week. In response, weak southerly to southwesterly mid- level flow will develop across our region, acting as less of a suppressor to convection. 1000-700 mb layer southeast flow will become better defined this weekend, bringing a more reliable feed of deeper moisture from the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. By next Monday and Tuesday, GEFS ensemble members show the most likely range of PWs in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range areawide. PoPs will respond with an initial jump on Saturday, then a slower climb in rain chances from Sunday through next Tuesday. This is starting to look more classically like the start of summer rainy season. Otherwise, the proximity of upper ridging through this weekend will support afternoon temperature running 1-4 degrees above normal. Inland highs will commonly reach the 90-95 degree range, with heat index values in the 95-100 range. We have already seen minor heat-related impacts over the last couple of weeks. Now we will start to see Moderate heat-related impacts, as highlighted in NWS Heat Risk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of tonight. Patchy fog and lowered (IFR) cigs are possible at ECP and DHN around daybreak. Later in the afternoon, the same terminals will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms through the evening. Erratic winds and frequent lightning will be the main concerns. VFR conditions are expected to prevail for our remaining terminals. && .MARINE... Issuedat 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 A high pressure center will persist near Bermuda through this weekend, with a broad ridge extending west to the Georgia coast. Gentle easterly breezes over the northeast Gulf will become southeasterly on Thursday then continue through this weekend, interrupted each afternoon by the nearshore seabreeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 The main fire weather concern over the next 7 days will be gusty and erratic winds near afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Through Friday, storms will be isolated, favoring the Nature Coast seabreeze and the Emerald Coast seabreeze. Thunderstorm coverage will increase this weekend as the air mass moistens a little more, becoming scattered and persisting through early next week. Otherwise, a seasonably hot air mass will persist, with afternoon temperatures will running 1-4 degrees above normal. Areas of fog are expected on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, mainly west of U.S. 231 through the Panhandle and Lower Alabama. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 Heavy downpours beneath the core of afternoon and evening thunderstorms may lead to localized and short-lived nuisance flooding in urban or poor drainage areas, mainly from Saturday onward as thunderstorm coverage increases and the air mass moistens further. Larger scale flooding and river flooding are not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 91 71 93 71 / 20 0 10 0 Panama City 87 71 87 72 / 40 0 0 0 Dothan 90 69 90 68 / 40 20 20 0 Albany 91 69 92 71 / 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 91 69 93 71 / 10 0 10 0 Cross City 93 70 94 72 / 10 0 20 0 Apalachicola 83 72 85 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Haner HYDROLOGY...Haner