FXUS62 KTAE 181720 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 120 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 - Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat may affect those who are sensitive, especially without cooling/hydration. - Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms will return mid to late week. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that develop. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Upper ridge will remain draped through the southeast US through Tuesday while an upper trough digs southward to off the western Baja coast. The slug of moisture aiding convection development today along I75 will drift west towards the eastern Panhandle and southeast Alabama Monday while drier air (PWATS <1 inch) moves in from the Atlantic. Therefore, rain chances will be favored in our western zones Monday while the remainder of the tri-state area will be mostly dry. Much like today, thunderstorms that develop will be capable of gusty to strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Tuesday will continue the dry trend with minimal chances for rainfall. Upper ridge weakens beginning Wednesday as an upper low develops and translates west into the Bahamas. Moisture starts a gradual return Wednesday as well as rain chances on the GCSB. Meanwhile, a cold front will sit between the upper trough out west and the weakening ridge out east which will gradually stall to our north through northern Alabama and Georgia later this week. In response, winds turn more southerly which will be more favorable for development on the GCSB in the afternoon then interactions with the westward moving ECSB late afternoons and evenings. The front gradually weakens this weekend as the upper ridge strengthens once again and the Bahamas upper low gets shunted south. Rain chances gradually increase from 20-40% Thursday to 30-60% by next Sunday. Temperatures are fairly persistent with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the drier air and lower rain chances Tuesday through Thursday, this will be the hottest timeframe through next weekend. There is even a low chance for meeting or exceeding 95F in the Florida Big Bend and heat indices approaching 100F as well in isolated locations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026 A couple of showers and storms will be possible between KECP and KDHN this afternoon and early evening. Some low stratus may develop near KVLD in the early morning hours, but confidence is a bit on the lower side. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Light to moderate east to southeast winds will continue through midweek as high pressure ridging remains draped across the Gulf waters. Easterly surges in the overnight hours will cause a slight uptick in winds, perhaps briefly reaching cautionary levels. Ridging weakens later this week as a cold front reaches the Mid South causing winds to become southerly. Chances increase for shower and thunderstorm activity across the Gulf waters next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 High dispersions are expected today across the Suwannee Valley and I- 75 corridor as mixing heights climb to near 7,000 feet with easterly transport winds around 10 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be more southerly to southeasterly, but mixing heights will be lower, yielding good dispersions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in the eastern Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama as the seabreeze develops and pushes inland. A relatively dry period is on tap Tuesday through Thursday before better moisture arrives and rain chances gradually increase into the weekend. Good afternoon dispersions each day towards the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought impacts, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 92 70 92 / 0 10 10 20 Panama City 70 87 70 87 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 67 89 68 90 / 0 10 0 30 Albany 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 66 92 67 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 69 94 69 94 / 0 40 10 20 Apalachicola 73 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Young