FXUS62 KTAE 161842 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 242 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - A Wind Advisory over land for wind gusts up to 35 mph in the Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama for weakened and vulnerable trees and structures damaged from Hurricane Isaias. - A Gale Warning is in effect over our waters for winds up to 40kts for Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 As we head into this evening, a strong cold front will begin pushing through the area. Little, if any, precipitation is expected with this frontal passage, with the main concern instead being increasing winds as the pressure gradient tightens behind the front. Winds will quickly shift out of the north following this front, with a combination of cold air advection and potentially some daytime mixing helping to bring stronger gusts to the surface on Saturday. Behind the front, we'll finally see some welcome relief from the unseasonably warm temperatures we've experienced over the past week. Daytime highs on Saturday will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Something worth keeping an eye on is the development of a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, although some uncertainty remains regarding its eventual position and the influence it will have on our local weather. While the low itself is not expected to directly impact our area, its position could influence the prevailing low level flow throughout the remainder of this weekend. If it were to stay along the coast we'll see a northeasterly flow that would favor drier air and sunnier skies. If it shifts farther offshore more easterly winds are possible, which will allow for some low level moisture return. This instead favors more cloud cover and maybe even some misty conditions or drizzle. Ultimately how this coastal low evolves will help determine exactly how much more sunshine we'll get to enjoy throughout the next few days. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Breezy to windy conditions continue Sunday before relaxing a little as the pressure gradient begins to weaken slightly later Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s in many locations Sunday before a warming trend sees afternoon temperatures climb into the lower 70s Monday and mid to upper 70s the rest of next week. Overnight lows will be a bit cool with middle to upper 40s to near 50 to start the week and ending it in the middle to upper 50s. All of this is thanks to an H5 low cutting off over the Mid-Atlantic Coast. This spawns a coastal surface low that will meander off the Carolina coastline for a while, helping to keep dry northerly to northeasterly flow over our region. We will monitor the potential for a more easterly component to the surface winds Sunday into the early part of the work week as that could bring back enough low- level moisture to introduce more cloud cover than we currently have in the forecast. If that's the case, forecast highs would be knocked down. But there's not a whole lot of ensemble support for that at this time, but it's worth mentioning and monitoring on our end. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 This TAF cycle focuses on winds before and after cold frontal passage. For the rest of this aftn into the evening, winds generally less than 10 kts are fcst. By tonight, a strong cold front plows thru the region and ushers in quick northwesterly wind shift, ramping up to about 15 kts sustained with frequent gusts of 25-30 kts. Timed the onset at each terminal based on the latest trends with ECP/DHN experiencing post-frontal gustiness first (~3Z) and VLD last (~9Z). Otherwise, VFR conds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increasing to Gales. A Gale Warning remains in effect starting this evening and lasting through at least early Sunday morning. Portions of our offshore waters may see gale conditions extend through the entire weekend. Winds and seas remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A strong cold front arrives tonight causing winds to sharply turn out of the northwest to north and increase surface winds to 15 to 30 mph sustained with gusts up to 40 mph. Relative humidity values decrease to 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons in the wake of the front. Recent rains should limit critical fire weather concerns. However, we'll monitor how the fuels respond over the weekend into early next week as the breezy and dry conditions are expected to linger into next work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Several sites remain in Action Stage with most in the process of falling. Additional flooding concerns are not anticipated the next several days as high pressure dominates the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 72 52 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 59 71 54 70 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 54 70 50 67 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 56 70 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 72 50 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 66 74 53 70 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 63 71 56 69 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ007>014-108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...IG3 MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese