FXUS62 KTAE 160528 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 128 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 123 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Another round of fog is likely again Friday morning across much of the area. - A strong cold front Friday night will lead to gusty winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 35 to 40 knots over coastal waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. - Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90 through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Generally warm and dry conditions across the area will remain constant tomorrow, with only a very minimal chance of rain along the coast of Apalachee Bay. High pressure will remain across the region through Friday ahead of the front moving in later this weekend. Tonight, minimal winds due to a very weak pressure gradient in tandem with prefrontal moisture will create ideal conditions for patchy fog to form tomorrow morning across the area. As the day progresses, the high pressure system will bring unseasonably warm temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front sweeps through the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. It'll be a mostly dry frontal passage with the highest chance for rain across the southeastern Florida Big Bend Friday night. However, you'll know the front is through when winds turn more northerly and increase substantially with widespread wind gusts of 30+ mph expected early Saturday morning. Breezy to gusty conditions continue throughout Saturday and linger into Saturday night before the pressure gradient relaxes enough to allow winds to calm some. Even then, winds are forecast to remain elevated into early next week. As mentioned in the previous AFD, this type of wind could hamper hurricane recovery efforts across the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama and a Wind Advisory for these areas will be considered, even if it may not explicitly hit criteria. One good thing about this front is it will bring a true taste of autumn with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the middle 40s to middle 50s over the weekend. Temperatures moderate some early next week, but still remain near to slightly below normal for this time of year. One thing we'll also monitor is the potential for a coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic states next week. While it won't directly impact our area, it has the potential to either keep us drier and sunnier (track closer to the Mid-Atlantic) or keep us cloudy, cooler and misty (track farther off the coast). So that'll be something to monitor as we go through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 MVFR vsbys will develop overnight, perhaps IFR at ABY and VLD in the predawn hours. Fog will dissipate by mid morning with VFR conds prevailing. Attention then turns to a cold front entering the area this evening. Winds will quickly clock to northwest behind the passage at ECP, DHN, and ABY 3-4Z with speeds around 15 knots and gusts 25-27 knots. Frontal passage at TLH and VLD was at the end of the period so will include in the 12Z TAFs. Little to no rainfall expected with the frontal passage, perhaps some light rain at ECP in the late afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Tranquil boating conditions continue Friday with light easterly breezes in the morning turning more westerly later in the day. That changes in a hurry as a powerful cold front sweeps across the northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. Winds are forecast to increase substantially out of the northwest to north following the frontal passage. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a Gale Watch for all of our waters Friday night through at least Saturday night. Winds are forecast to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Another dry day is in the forecast again Friday ahead of a cold front. MinRh will generally be between 40 to 50 percent Friday afternoon. Transport winds will generally be out of the west ahead of a cold front. This cold front will bring a low, 20 to 30 percent, chance of an isolated shower or two as the front sweeps through, especially along the immediate coast and the southeastern Florida Big Bend. Winds quickly become northerly following the front late Friday night into Saturday with gusts generally between 30 to 40 mph. MinRH is forecast to drop to between 30 to 40 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Patchy dense fog is possible from early to mid-morning again Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Several sites, including a number of them along the Choctawhatchee and Ochlockonee Rivers, remain in Action stage this afternoon but are slowly falling. An isolated shower or two is possible across the southeastern Florida Big Bend, but they shouldn't cause any flooding concerns. The rest of the forecast period is looking dry. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 72 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 60 72 55 71 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 55 70 50 68 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 56 70 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 61 72 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 75 57 73 / 20 10 0 0 Apalachicola 64 72 58 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for FLZ007>013-108-112. GA...None. AL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ065>069. GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for GMZ735. Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reese LONG TERM....Reese AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Reese FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Reese