FXUS62 KTAE 150942
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
542 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Patchy dense fog is possible from the early to mid-morning in 
  the Suwanee Valley, Flint River Valley, and the FL Panhandle
  today. Another round of fog is likely again on Friday morning.

- A strong cold frontal passage on Friday night will lead to gusty 
  winds this weekend to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over coastal 
  waters that may impact hurricane recovery efforts, including 
  compromised trees leading to power outages, drones, improperly 
  secured roof tarps, loose outdoor items, and hazardous boating. 

- Above normal temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to near 90  
  through Friday, turning sharply cooler this weekend with highs 
  in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Little to no chance for rain expected. 

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

High pressure at the surface and aloft will gradually breakdown 
by Friday as a cold front approaches. The pattern will remain 
favorable for patchy dense fog this morning and Friday morning 
across portions of the region. Highs will be above normal in the 
mid-80s to around 90 through Friday with some humidity in the air 
as well. Cannot rule out a brief shower Friday or Friday night 
mainly closer to the coast. A strong but dry cold frontal passage 
is remains on tap Friday night, with a much cooler and drier air 
mass this weekend. Breezy conditions in the wake of the front may 
impact outdoor events and hurricane recovery efforts this weekend.
Wind gusts up to 35 mph over land and 40 knots over the coastal 
waters are a good bet, especially on Saturday, with winds 
remaining elevated into early next week. Deep layer ridging over 
the region early next week should maintain dry weather with 
warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Fog is currently developing east of VLD and gradually building
westward. The TAF continues tempo IFR vsbys through 13Z. VFR
thereafter as well as the other sites through the period.
Generally sky clear today then increasing high clouds tonight.
Patchy fog, though not in the TAFs attm, may be added with better
confidence in subsequent TAFs. Winds will be calm to light
east to east-southeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea
breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, 
ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes 
with gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated
into next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Fair dispersion across most of the region today, except pockets of 
low dispersion through this afternoon in Southwest GA. On Friday, 
high dispersion chances increase ahead of a cold front. Cannot rule 
out a brief shower closer to the coast on Friday or on Friday night, 
otherwise dry conditions with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s 
to low 40s today and Friday. Light transport winds of 5 to 10 mph 
generally out of the east can be expected today, then clocking 
around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of the cold front. 
A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy 
conditions to following for this weekend. High temperatures will be 
in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 
70s this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast 
in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually 
go into minor flood, but confidence remains on the lower side 
for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the 
upcoming week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  67  88  63 /   0   0   0  10 
Panama City   86  67  85  61 /   0   0  10  10 
Dothan        88  64  86  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Albany        89  64  87  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      89  66  88  63 /   0   0   0  10 
Cross City    88  69  88  68 /   0   0  20  30 
Apalachicola  83  70  83  65 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF