FXUS62 KTAE 150521 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 121 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Above normal temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 for this work week with little to no chance for rain expected. - Marine conditions will quickly deteriorate on Friday night following passage of a sharp cold front with an increasing potential for gale-force wind gusts this weekend. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure both at the surface and aloft will keep conditions dry but also a bit toasty through much of the week with high temperatures forecast in the mid 80s to near 90 through Friday. Late Friday and Friday night, a fairly strong cold front is forecast to rapidly push southeastward through the area, ushering in a drier and cooler air mass in its wake. Dry conditions persisting ahead of the front will preclude any precipitation developing except perhaps over the Gulf waters. High temperatures are forecast in the 70s across the area on Saturday with low temperatures in the low 50s to near 60 overnight Saturday night. The gradient will remain fairly tight in the wake of the front as well, leading to breezy conditions remaining over the weekend and into next week. As winds become more easterly Sunday and beyond, a slow but gradual warming and moistening trend is forecast to take hold. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Areas of fog expected to develop within the Suwanee Valley overnight possibly reaching VLD before sunrise and kept tempo IFR vsbys here 9-13Z. Also, patchy fog may develop north of the Panhandle coast towards dawn with ECP falling to MVFR. After dawn, conds will return to VFR at all sites through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light to calm overnight, becoming east to east-southeast during the day then calm once again after 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Tranquil boating conditions expected into Friday with daily sea breezes. On Friday night, a cold front will blast across the waters, ushering in a sharp increase in fresh to strong northerly breezes with near gale to gale-force wind gusts. Winds are expected to remain elevated into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Fair dispersions are expected again Thursday before dramatically increasing on Friday ahead of a strong cold front. Dry conditions are expected to continue with minRH percentage values in the mid-30s to mid 40s. Light transport winds of 5-10 mph generally out of the east can be expected through Thursday, then clocking around to the west and increasing on Friday ahead of a cold front. A strong cold frontal passage is expected Friday night, with breezy conditions to follow this weekend. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 through Friday, the decreasing to the 70s this weekend. No rainfall is expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 With the recent rainfall, several rivers are observed/forecast in action stage. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce may eventually go into minor flood, but confidence is a bit on the lower side for now. No additional rainfall or flooding is expected over the upcoming week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 88 63 73 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 68 85 62 72 / 0 0 10 10 Dothan64 85 56 70 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 64 87 58 71 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 66 87 63 73 / 0 10 10 10 Cross City 69 88 68 76 / 0 20 20 10 Apalachicola 70 83 66 73 / 10 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Merrifield LONG TERM....Merrifield AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Merrifield FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Merrifield