FXUS64 KSJT 221101 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 601 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Big Country, Heartland and Concho Valley areas this afternoon. - There is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly across the Big Country, this afternoon and evening. - Hot and mainly dry weather will persist through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 The main concern today will continue to be the heat affecting the area, with highs once again expected to range from around 100 degrees in our southwestern counties to potentially near 110 degrees in our Big Country counties north of I-20. So, the Heat Advisory will continue for the same area as yesterday for the Big Country, Heartland, and most of the Concho Valley. In addition to the heat, there is a low (15%-20%) chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the Big Country, and areas mainly east of a Brady to Junction line. Although we aren't expecting widespread coverage or severe weather, temperature/dewpoint spreads will be large (40+ degrees Fahrenheit) which could lead to strong wind gusts over 50 mph should any storms form. Any storms that do form will end by midnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Next week will be hot and generally dry for our area with daily highs 8-12 degrees above normal. The strong upper level high will be over the New Mexico/Texas border Sunday-Tuesday, and then slowly migrate west toward the New Mexico/Arizona border by Thursday- Friday. The hottest days look to be Sunday through Tuesday, with the high in closer proximity and the 850mb thermal ridge the strongest. Expect highs to be 104-107 across the Concho Valley and 105-110 in the Big Country. Our southern counties will have highs mostly 100- 103 degrees. Anticipate the need for additional Heat Advisories for our northern and central counties, and some locations north of I-20 may approach Extreme Heat Warning criteria. By Thursday and Friday, expect highs to be in the upper 90s/around 100 in our southern counties, and 100-105 degrees farther north across the rest of our area. With weak northerly flow aloft around the eastern side of the aforementioned high in the midweek time frame, some of the medium range models hint at a possibility for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop along a surface trough as it moves south into our area Wednesday night and Thursday. The possibility looks remote at this time, however. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 No significant changes from the previous forecast. VFR for the most part at all sites. There is a low probability of isolated TSRA near the KABI terminal, but confidence is still too low in coverage and placement to introduce a mention at this time. Otherwise, generally south/southeast winds in the 5 to 10 knot range, with FEW to SCT mid and upper level clouds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 106 81 106 81 / 0 20 0 0 San Angelo 104 76 104 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 102 74 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 105 76 105 77 / 0 10 0 0 Sweetwater 106 79 107 79 / 0 20 0 0 Ozona 99 73 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 102 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones- McCulloch-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor- Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...20