FXUS64 KSJT 200004
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
704 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. 

- Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms
  from Tuesday evening through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed early this 
afternoon, with some being severe. Expect these storms to continue
developing and expanding in coverage through the rest of the 
afternoon and evening. Most CAMs eventually expand this convection
into a somewhat organized MCS, and move it south into south Texas
later tonight. The main concerns will continue to be large hail 
and damaging winds. In addition, precipitable water values are 
between 1 and 1.5 inches, and with the generally slow movement of 
these storms, flash flooding will also be a concern. 

For Wednesday, CAMs disagree with each other on the coverage and 
intensity of possible convection, but with a boundary in the area,
the moisture remaining in place, and continued southwest flow 
with embedded shortwave energy, we will likely have another at 
least medium (20%-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms, 
mainly during the afternoon as afternoon heating affects the area.
We will continue to see at least a Slight Risk for severe storms,
mainly for our southern counties Wednesday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through much of the long 
term with a persistent upper level southwest flow with 
disturbances moving across our area. Also, the combination of a 
cold front south of the area and abundant moisture(PW values 1 to 
1.5 inches) will bring a risk of localized flash flooding, 
especially Wednesday night and Thursday as the WPC has a slight 
risk of excessive rainfall along and south of the I-20 corridor. 
Also, there is and isolated flash flood threat this weekend across
the southeast part of the area. There are medium to high chances 
of rain for at least a few days in the long term. Also, there is 
an isolated severe weather threat(marginal risk) for the southern 
2/3 of the area Tuesday evening across the Concho Valley and 
Northern Edwards Plateau. The main hazards will be large hail and 
damaging winds. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 
upper 70s and 80s, around to slightly below normal for this time 
of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the southern
terminals over the next 3-4 hours. Brief reductions in visby and
gusty winds will accompany the strongest storms. Most of the activity
will move out of our area by midnight. MVFR (and possibly IFR) 
cigs will spread into northern portions of the area overnight. 
Will include MVFR cigs at KABI and KSJT. Less confident in how far
southward cigs will spread but will continue to monitor the next 
TAF package. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  78  64  78 /  40  30  80  70 
San Angelo  62  79  62  80 /  60  40  70  60 
Junction    64  81  63  80 /  70  30  80  60 
Brownwood   63  79  63  78 /  60  30  70  70 
Sweetwater  60  77  62  79 /  30  30  80  60 
Ozona       63  80  62  81 /  60  40  70  30 
Brady       63  78  64  77 /  70  30  70  70 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...42