FXUS64 KSJT 191143 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 643 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Storms possible this afternoon and evening. - Medium to High (30-80%) chances for showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday evening through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening... Cold front just north of Childress at 130 AM expected to move along I-20 mid morning around 9 AM and then slow down as it moves south along a San Angelo to Brownwood line 3-4 PM. While isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this morning in the Big Country, a larger complex of strong to severe storms is expected to develop in the Concho Valley to Brownwood in maximum heating this afternoon. Complex then moves south and east into the I-10 corridor and NW Hill country this evening. With CAPES of 4000 J/kg and 0-6KM bulk shears of 30 to 35 KTS, supercells with very large hail over 2 inches possible. The complex of storms should move south of West Central by midnight, ending most of the severe weather threat. Precipital water values around 1.5 inches indicate efficient rainfall producers, and localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas. .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026 By the time Wednesday night rolls around, another low pressure trough strengthens across the southwestern U.S. and continues moving to the east. This will provide another round of support for rain and thunderstorm development. High rain chances (80% chance) will be in place for Wednesday night. The previous rainfall from Tuesday could saturate soils to some degree. As a result, locations that receive multiple rounds of rain will see increased risk of flood related concerns on Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked our area for a Slight Risk (15 to 40% chance) of Excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding through Wednesday night. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damagingwinds being the main hazards. The long range models continue to show a disturbed weather pattern in place as this trough moves east for the later half of the work Week. A couple of embedded disturbances within the flow are also being indicated as well, which offers support for multiple rounds of rain. In the meantime, high rain chances (70%) are in place for Thursday. Additional rounds of thunderstorms remain a possibility through at least Friday. We will have to monitor closely for future updates regarding the severe weather and excessive rainfall (flash flooding) potential through the end of this week. Please check back for future updates and ensure you have multiple ways to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR stratus and light fog will become VFR mid to late morning. A cold front will be move into KABI 1230Z with gusty north winds and a few showers through 15Z. Cold front should move south to KSJT and KBBD in the mid/late afternoon with scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms, which will move south to KSOA and KJCT in the evening. Occasional IFR visibilities in heavy rain, and an outside chance of hail and damaging winds possible with the storms this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 88 62 77 64 / 80 40 30 90 San Angelo 92 63 79 63 / 80 60 50 90 Junction 91 65 83 64 / 50 80 60 90 Brownwood 89 64 80 64 / 80 60 40 80 Sweetwater 87 61 77 63 / 60 40 40 90 Ozona 90 64 81 63 / 40 60 50 90 Brady 89 64 79 64 / 70 80 50 90 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...04