FXUS64 KSJT 160440 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, and Coleman County. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for much of the Northern Edwards Plateau. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of West Central Texas. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A series of upper-level disturbances continue to bring increased rain chances, along with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds to the area through Friday. This airmass brings ample moisture and precipitable water values to the area today, making for very efficient rain-producing storms. The heavy rainfall from these systems bring the threat of Flash Flooding to much of West Central Texas today through early Friday morning, mainly across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and northeastern portions of the Heartland. The Flood Watch is currently in effect through early Friday morning for these areas, and there is a decent chance that Flash Flood Advisories and Warnings will be issued this afternoon through this evening when the heavy rainfall starts impacting areas across West Central Texas. With that said, please make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, and stay tuned to our forecast for updated information on this event. Much of West Central Texas is outlooked today by WPC in a Moderate to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with the Northern Edwards Plateau being the focus of the Moderate Risk area through tonight. In general, there is potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall over a fairly large area, with localized pockets in excess of 5 inches possible. Please see the Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Discussion (Day 1) for more details and on the rainfall amounts. After the strong cold frontal passage, increased and gusty north winds are expected this afternoon through Friday. Northerly winds from 15 to 30 mph are expected, with higher gusts as high as 45 mph are possible overnight tonight through Friday. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect for 1 AM to 7 PM Friday for all of West Central Texas for these gusty winds. As for the temperatures, expect overnight lows tonight to fall into the 50s, and highs on Friday to struggle surpassing the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 After a chilly start to the morning on Saturday, temperatures will slowly warm into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. These highs are 15 to 20 degrees below seasonal normals. Good radiational cooling conditions are forecast Sunday morning, as winds become light and variable and skies remain clear. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. Low-lying areas and river valleys may drop into the mid 30s. A light frost is possible across the area, especially across low-lying areas where the coldest temperatures are forecast. Another cool day is forecast on Sunday with highs in 60s to near 70. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s. A steady warm up is then forecast through next week. Highs on Monday will be back into the 70s, with highs on Tuesday approaching 80. Upper level ridging then develops across the area for the second half of the work week, resulting in highs well into the 80s. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms from near KABI, south to KSOA, moving to the east and southeast. Expect KBBD and KJCT to see TSRA over the next few hours, and all sites could have lingering SHRA through the late night hours. North winds have already moved into KABI and KSJT, and will likely be at KBBD and KSOA by 00Z or 01Z, and then KJCT between 01Z and 03Z. Winds will be strong behind the front from later tonight throughout the entire day tomorrow with north winds in the 20 to 30 knot range all day. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions tonight with the thunderstorm activity and behind the front will improve to VFR between 12Z and 15Z at most sites, but KABI could see VFR conditions before 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 53 61 42 / 100 100 0 0 San Angelo 82 50 61 40 / 90 100 10 0 Junction 85 52 62 41 / 20 90 30 0 Brownwood 86 52 62 42 / 70 100 10 0 Sweetwater 79 51 59 40 / 100 60 0 0 Ozona 79 50 59 40 / 90 100 30 0 Brady 86 53 60 41 / 30 100 20 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan-Coke- Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason- McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford- Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...20