FXUS64 KSJT 152304 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 604 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through tonight (1 PM today to 7 AM Friday) for all of the Big Country, Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau, and Coleman County. Focused shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall is expected. - Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall today and tonight for much of the Northern Edwards Plateau. Surrounding this Moderate risk area is a Slight risk for excessive rainfall, which encompasses most of of West Central Texas. - A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 1 PM Friday for gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. - Much cooler temperatures expected Friday into the weekend. Some low-lying areas may have morning lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A series of upper-level disturbances continue to bring increased rain chances, along with a cold front bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds to the area through Friday. This airmass brings ample moisture and precipitable water values to the area today, making for very efficient rain-producing storms. The heavy rainfall from these systems bring the threat of Flash Flooding to much of West Central Texas today through early Friday morning, mainly across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Northern Edwards Plateau, and northeastern portions of the Heartland. The Flood Watch is currently in effect through early Friday morning for these areas, and there is a decent chance that Flash Flood Advisories and Warnings will be issued this afternoon through this evening when the heavy rainfall starts impacting areas across West Central Texas. With that said, please make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings, and stay tuned to our forecast for updated information on this event. Much of West Central Texas is outlooked today by WPC in a Moderate to Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with the Northern Edwards Plateau being the focus of the Moderate Risk area through tonight. In general, there is potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall over a fairly large area, with localized pockets in excess of 5 inches possible. Please see the Weather Prediction Center Excessive Rainfall Discussion (Day 1) for more details and on the rainfall amounts. After the strong cold frontal passage, increased and gusty north winds are expected this afternoon through Friday. Northerly winds from 15 to 30 mph are expected, with higher gusts as high as 45 mph are possible overnight tonight through Friday. As a result, a Wind Advisory is in effect for 1 AM to 7 PM Friday for all of West Central Texas for these gusty winds. As for the temperatures, expect overnight lows tonight to fall into the 50s, and highs on Friday to struggle surpassing the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The upper-level trough that has helped cause the active weather across west central Texas today will start to shift eastward Friday evening into Saturday, leaving behind shortwave ridging across Texas. Cold overnight low temperatures and cooler afternoon highs will remain in the wake of the cold front tracking through the region tonight. A much cooler and more stable airmass will settle in across the region for the weekend. Overnight lows Friday night under generally clear skies and light to slightly breezy winds can allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions early Saturday morning as well as Sunday morning. As a result, low temperatures both mornings could be quite cool as they look to drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Apparent temperatures can drop into the low 30s to low 40s, which brings us close to freezing in some low- lying areas. This would be the coldest temperatures we have experienced since mid-April! The strong area of high pressure will move eastward by Sunday afternoon and allow for southerly flow at the surface while an upper-level shortwave passes to the north. High temperatures should climb back into the 70s on Sunday and Monday and into the 80s on Tuesday. The upper-level pattern could become more active for the middle part of next week as global models are in fairly good agreement of an upper-level low digging into southern California by Tuesday night. This would place much of west Texas under southwest flow aloft, similar to what occurred earlier this week. Differences in timing and moisture amounts still exist on this feature so for now, low (20-30%) chances for rain are in the forecast for Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Currently, there are scattered showers and thunderstorms from near KABI, south to KSOA, moving to the east and southeast. Expect KBBD and KJCT to see TSRA over the next few hours, and all sites could have lingering SHRA through the late night hours. North winds have already moved into KABI and KSJT, and will likely be at KBBD and KSOA by 00Z or 01Z, and then KJCT between 01Z and 03Z. Winds will be strong behind the front from later tonight throughout the entire day tomorrow with north winds in the 20 to 30 knot range all day. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions tonight with the thunderstorm activity and behind the front will improve to VFR between 12Z and 15Z at most sites, but KABI could see VFR conditions before 12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 53 60 42 61 / 100 0 0 0 San Angelo 54 61 40 61 / 100 10 0 0 Junction 56 63 41 63 / 90 10 0 0 Brownwood 54 62 42 63 / 80 10 0 0 Sweetwater 51 58 40 60 / 90 0 0 0 Ozona 53 59 40 59 / 100 20 0 0 Brady 54 61 41 61 / 90 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Friday morning for Callahan-Coke-Coleman- Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels- Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for Brown-Callahan- Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble- Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...20