FXUS64 KSHV 201148
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
648 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

 - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the
   course of the next seven days.

 - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the
   risk of flash flooding will become a concern late this week 
   and into the upcoming weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Some trailing stratiform precipitation remains across our
Northeast and Central Louisiana zones in wake of early convection
along a well defined outflow boundary. This lingering rain should
eventually taper off overnight, as a stable and work-over
atmosphere settles in place. There is a diminishing thunderstorm
complex moving out of CentraL Texas, which could make it into
portions of our Deep East Texas zones before daybreak, but
confidence is low. However, decided to keep some slight chance
POPS in those zones to be on the safe side. We could also see an 
isolated shower or thunderstorm near a slow moving cold front 
north of I-30 across SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas. Due to 
the rain cooled airmass, lows tonight will bottom out in the low 
to mid 60s, which is pretty close to current temperatures over the
region. Some patchy fog will also be possible with wet soils and 
light winds in place. For Wednesday, expect a much quieter day 
across the area. But, with the aforementioned cool front pushing 
into the region, some isolated showers and thunderstorms can't be 
ruled out, especially during the afternoon hours with peak 
heating. Models are all over the place in terms of precipitation 
chances, so decided to stick with the NBM's coverage and lower 
the chances. 

Wednesday night into Thursday, the cool front will continue to 
push through the area. However, the flow aloft will remain
southwesterly, bringing a potent disturbance through the flow and
a complex of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. It appears 
this active southwesterly flow pattern will continue through the 
weekend, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Rain chances will continue as we move into the first half of next
week, as an upper trough and associated cool front moves into the
region. Widespread organized severe weather will be on the lower 
end through this time period, but an isolated strong to severe 
threat can't be ruled out. Also, with the potential consecutive 
days of rainfall, an elevated flood risk could develop over the 
area. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR and VLIFR to start the 12z TAF period
and cannot rule out some VSBY issues right hear near sunrise as
well but as we go through the morning and into the afternoon,
should see VFR conditions returning to most all terminal
locations. Cannot rule out at least isolated to widely scattered
diurnally driven convection today but chances do not warrant a
mention in this TAF package. Through much of the evening, we
should see prevailing VFR conditions but reintroduced a return to
MVFR and IFR ceilings near or after midnight tonight. Look for NNE
to ENE winds today with speeds generally under 10kts. 

13

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. 

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  70  81  68 /  20  30  80  90 
MLU  84  69  84  68 /  30  30  60  90 
DEQ  83  64  75  63 /  20  30  70  90 
TXK  85  67  79  67 /  10  30  70  90 
ELD  83  65  79  65 /  30  30  60  90 
TYR  84  69  78  67 /  10  40  90  80 
GGG  85  69  79  68 /  10  30  90  80 
LFK  85  71  81  69 /  30  30  80  80 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13