FXUS64 KSHV 200750 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 250 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 - Widespread rainfall will continue on a daily basis through the course of the next seven days. - As soils become saturated from repeated rounds of rainfall, the risk of flash flooding will become a concern late this week and into the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Some trailing stratiform precipitation remains across our Northeast and Central Louisiana zones in wake of early convection along a well defined outflow boundary. This lingering rain should eventually taper off overnight, as a stable and work-over atmosphere settles in place. There is a diminishing thunderstorm complex moving out of CentraL Texas, which could make it into portions of our Deep East Texas zones before daybreak, but confidence is low. However, decided to keep some slight chance POPS in those zones to be on the safe side. We could also see an isolated shower or thunderstorm near a slow moving cold front north of I-30 across SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas. Due to the rain cooled airmass, lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s, which is pretty close to current temperatures over the region. Some patchy fog will also be possible with wet soils and light winds in place. For Wednesday, expect a much quieter day across the area. But, with the aforementioned cool front pushing into the region, some isolated showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially during the afternoon hours with peak heating. Models are all over the place in terms of precipitation chances, so decided to stick with the NBM's coverage and lower the chances. Wednesday night into Thursday, the cool front will continue to push through the area. However, the flow aloft will remain southwesterly, bringing a potent disturbance through the flow and a complex of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. It appears this active southwesterly flow pattern will continue through the weekend, bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will continue as we move into the first half of next week, as an upper trough and associated cool front moves into the region. Widespread organized severe weather will be on the lower end through this time period, but an isolated strong to severe threat can't be ruled out. Also, with the potential consecutive days of rainfall, an elevated flood risk could develop over the area. /20/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Showers in the wake of deeper convection is trying to dissipate across the eastern half of our airspace currently and that should be the trend overnight. As this precipitation dissipates in coverage, we should begin seeing IFR or LIFR ceilings develop in its wake and can't rule out at least MVFR VSBYs as well so have tried to trend TAFs that way the closer we get to sunrise. Look for those ceilings to slowly but gradually give way to MVFR ceilings and eventually low VFR or these ceilings will scatter out all together by late morning into the afternoon hours. Any convection today should be widely scattered at best so chose not to mention any Wx with this TAF package. Look for mostly variable to NE to ENE winds with speeds generally under 10kts through the 00z TAF package. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026 Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 81 68 83 / 30 80 90 70 MLU 69 84 68 83 / 30 60 90 80 DEQ 64 75 63 81 / 30 70 90 50 TXK67 79 67 83 / 30 70 90 60 ELD 65 79 65 81 / 30 60 90 70 TYR 69 78 67 83 / 40 90 80 50 GGG 69 79 68 83 / 30 90 80 60 LFK 71 81 69 84 / 30 80 80 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...13