FXUS63 KSGF 230519
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1219 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding Sunday 
  night into early Monday, though uncertainty remains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Pretty strong northwesterly flow aloft, with an upper high over
the Southwest/Southern Rockies and an upper trough over the 
eastern CONUS. An upper level disturbance continues to slide 
southeast through the area, which allowed for a cluster of 
storms to develop over parts of NE/KS earlier this morning. This
cluster has since weakened and entered the forecast area, with
mainly pesky showers/storms so far this morning/early afternoon.

The 12Z sounding showed an impressive amount of MUCAPE (>4500 
J/kg), with effective bulk shear >45kts, however many factors 
have limited storms from tapping into this. An outflow boundary 
continues to push south, with "cooler" temperatures in the 70s 
to 80s behind it, and temps in the 90s ahead of it (MO/AR 
border). Some pockets of clear skies are visible on satellite 
closer to the MO/AR border, which could lead to these pockets 
further destabilizing ahead of the showers/storms. If this were 
to happen, then intensification could occur south of Highway 60 
over the next few hours, posing mainly an isolated damaging wind
threat, and a secondary isolated hail risk. Latest CAMs however
keep this activity weak in our area before intensifying south 
of the border in Arkansas. This is looking more likely, as cloud
cover increases and the outflow boundary quickly advances 
south, hindering reintensification for our area. The Storm 
Prediction Center's latest outlook showcases this thinking, with
a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk generally along/south of Highway
60, and the better severe risk (Slight risk) south of the 
forecast area beginning in Arkansas. 

Shower and storm chances should push out of the area this
evening, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

On Sunday, the upper level ridge over the west and associated 
upper high slide slightly eastward, with the aforementioned 
upper trough continuing to pivot over the eastern CONUS keeping 
us in northwesterly flow aloft. During the day, conditions look 
mainly dry, with highs topping out in the 80s to even the low 
90s for southeast KS and far southwest MO. Another upper level 
disturbance looks to slide southeast into the area again Sunday 
night, leading to additional chances (50-60%) for showers and 
storms. CAMs show two clusters of showers/storms developing: One
pushing southeast from the Dakotas into northern MO, and a 
second developing over KS/OK pushing east. As these push through
the area overnight and into Monday morning, they could pose a 
localized flooding threat, as some guidance suggests PWATS over 
2.0". As the previous discussion mentioned, this would be 
150-175% above normal. Current HREF 24-hr LPMMs show localized 
pockets of 1.5-2.5" of rainfall, with the majority of the area 
expected to remain below an inch. There's still much uncertainty
regarding this activity, with several key mesoscale factors 
that need to come together to form any hydro concerns. 

With the area remaining in northwesterly flow throughout the
week, we'll see periodic low-end chances (15-30%) for 
showers/storms. Daily highs should generally remain in the upper
80s to low 90s (northeast CWA) to the mid/upper 90s (southwest 
CWA).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the most part, expect VFR conditions with light winds this
TAF period. There is a 30% chance for showers late Sunday, with
showers and storms then becoming likely after this TAF period Sunday
night into early Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Titus