FXUS63 KSGF 200702
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
202 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light shower chances (20-50%) across the area 
  through sunrise, dissipating into mid-morning. Residual 
  flooding from previous heavy rainfall persists through today.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (60-90%) on Thursday and 
  Friday. There is a slight risk for excessive 
  rainfall/localized flooding Thursday night through Friday.

- Additional rain chances (40-70%) throughout the weekend with 
  a gradual warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

This Morning:
A cooler morning to start this Wednesday with temperatures in
the lower to middle 50s. Widespread stratiform clouds continue
to envelop the area, with patchy areas of drizzle and fog
resulting in reduced visibilities. As we progress through the
overnight period, the 850mb front sinks through the region in
the vicinity of lingering jet dynamics and lift. This will
support scattered showers through sunrise, with any thunder
chances (< 20%) remaining marginal at best. No severe or 
flooding are expected with this activity. As we progress into 
mid to late morning, any lingering showers will dissipate giving
way to a cool and cloudy day across the Ozarks.

This Afternoon-Tonight:
A cooler afternoon across the area with NBM keeping highs in 
the middle to upper 60s areawide. Light east-northeast winds 
accompany the cooler temperatures. Residual flooding lingers 
through today, as heavy rainfall amounts resulted in rises along
area waterways. The period of dry time will be short-lived as 
rain chances slowly increase overnight tonight into Thursday 
morning as additional mid-level energy ejects out across the 
central CONUS. Lows fall into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thursday-Friday:
Ensemble guidance are in good agreement that shortwave energy
translates through southwest flow and overspreads the region on
Thursday. Moisture return will gradually tick up through
Thursday across the southern half of the area with dewpoints
reaching into the lower to middle 60s. Meanwhile, temperatures
gradually rebound into Thursday with highs warming into the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances will be slow to overspread the area until Thursday
evening/night, and persist into the overnight/Friday morning.
Rain chances remain high (70-90%) through Friday morning, before
gradually shifting east with the system's passage on Friday
afternoon/evening. The environment remains rather benign in
terms of supporting any severe weather, with instability limited
across the area. However, any convection that does occur will
increase the potential for heavy rainfall. WPC has highlighted
the areas along and west of Highway 65 in a Slight (2 of 4) 
Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Thursday into Friday. This aligns 
well with our messaging, as the primary concern with this late 
week system will be localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Soils
remain saturated across portions of the area, in particular 
along and north of Interstate 44. Elevated streamflows are being
observed in this area. As more CAMs come into sight, we will 
work to pin down the area of heaviest rainfall and associated 
amounts. 

This Weekend:
As we progress into the weekend, a gradual warming trend
continues over the area with highs returning to near average in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. High temperatures each day this
weekend could be impacted by cloud cover and additional rain
chances. Confidence is gradually increasing in weekend rain
chances (40-70%), though there remains some uncertainties on the
exact timing and location of each system. For the time being, we
are not expecting all-day washouts.

Next Week:
An active pattern looks to persist into early next week as
progress into late May. Additional rain chances are in the
forecast, though confidence is low on the extent of coverage
into early next week. Check back for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... 
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Light drizzle/fog and IFR to LIFR ceilings are ongoing. Through
the night, showers that have already started to develop will
increase in coverage, including a low potential for lightning.
Outside of showers, expect light drizzle/fog to continue.
Ceilings are expected to gradually lift on Wednesday, improving
to MVFR by late morning or early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Titus