FXUS63 KSGF 162244 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 544 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, on Saturday and especially Sunday morning as lows dip into the 30s. - Warming trend back to well above normal temperatures begins early next week, with highs around 80 F expected by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview: Satellite imagery nicely shows an upper-level trough swinging through the Midwest and Ohio Valleys this afternoon with a prominent cold front draped southward from the parent surface low in southern Quebec. Breezy northwest winds behind this front have been aiding in cold air advection across the Missouri Ozarks. At the surface, a layer of dry air persists with dew point depressions around 15 degrees across the region. At the 850 mb level, greater saturation is allowing a mid-level cloud deck to fill in, with even a few weak echoes being observed on radar. Blustery Fall Day: The cold air advection and cloud deck will prevent much warming today, capping high temperatures in the mid 50s. Furthermore, the increased pressure gradient on the backside of the aforementioned trough is producing frequent wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, making conditions feel a bit blustery--especially compared to the heat as of late. A fairly shallow saturated layer around 900 to 800 mb may allow for a few topographically aided sprinkles across the Ozarks this afternoon, but minimal if any accumulations will come of it. Frost Potential Saturday and Especially Sunday Morning: Clouds will gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight into Saturday morning. As they do, winds will also begin to weaken. These more favorable conditions for radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s across northwest portions of the forecast area tonight. There may be a brief 1-2 hour window where skies are clear enough, temperatures are cold enough, and winds are light enough that some patchy frost could develop, but overall the better conditions will be across central and northern Missouri. Confidence in frost development is higher Sunday morning thanks to clear skies and light winds. Model probabilities of temperatures 35 deg or less (a proxy for frost potential) are highest across the eastern Ozarks and south-central Missouri, ranging between 60-95%. Here, frost is more likely to be widespread. The footprint of probabilities of temperatures 32 deg or less is smaller--roughly limited to the valleys of the eastern Ozarks--ranging between 30-50%. Elsewhere, patchy frost will still be possible as probabilities range between 25-50%. A Frost Advisory may be needed in a future forecast update. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 The long term forecast is characterized by the return of dry and increasingly warm conditions. Ensembles show agreement in developing a broad, amplified ridge across the central CONUS next week as a trough digs through the Pacific coast. This means the return of southerly winds, warm air advection, ample sunshine, and by mid- week, the return of above-average temperatures. Indeed, small NBM temperature spreads lend themselves to high forecast confidence && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 544 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mid-level clouds will break up and shift south of the region overnight into Saturday morning. As the same time, northwesterly winds will decrease and shift to the northeast after 12Z. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Didio