FXUS63 KSGF 151642 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1142 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch is in effect through 4 PM as additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A localized risk for heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms will accompany this system. - Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the 50s to 60s. Expect gusty northerly winds up to 30-35 mph beginning Thursday evening and lasting through Friday evening. - Increasing confidence in patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, Saturday and Sunday mornings as lows dip into the 30s. The highest confidence is on Sunday morning across portions of the eastern Ozarks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The main feature of note in the region is a rapidly decaying thunderstorms complex over northeast Oklahoma as evidenced by warming cloud tops, the main line separating from the trailing stratiform region, and an overall sloppier presentation of the leading edge. Despite RAP analysis depicting ~1000 J.kg MUCAPE with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear ahead of the complex, it appears to be straying too far from large-scale ascent associated with the mid-and upper-level low lagging behind over Colorado and the Rocky Mountain front range. The HRRR has really struggled to initialize this complex each run. The 03Z RRFS, on the other hand, handled its presentation and evolution well. It has the complex completely dissipating by the time it reaches southwest Missouri. Given current radar trends, this seems the most likely scenario. Otherwise, the mesolow associated with the complex has initiated low-level warm air advection across the Ozarks, leading to a northward advancement of a previously stationary boundary. This is leading to scattered light showers across the area, which are expected to lift north with the front through the early morning. Flood Watch in effect through 4 PM: Another complex of storms is currently over the Red River Valley as another shortwave impulse interacts with the frontal boundary over the area. This complex is expected to follow the same progression as the first, bringing mostly remnant showers and thunderstorms to our area late this morning. The Flood Watch remains in effect northwest of I-44 until 4 PM this afternoon to account for these repeated rounds of showers and storms. However, with a trend more towards remnant stratiform, any flooding should remain quite localized, sticking to previously saturated areas that see some of the heavier rain today. If trends continue to depict lighter rainfall, the Flood Watch may be canceled early. That said, much of the area should see at least some light rain today (70-99% chance). The only areas that may remain dry is confined to Oregon and surrounding counties (50-80% chance to remain dry). Low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe storm today: With either of the two complexes this morning, there is still a low-end chance for a stray strong to severe thunderstorm, though chances seem quite low given current trends and very meager low- and mid-level lapse rates. Despite no official SPC Outlook for us this afternoon, there is still a low (<5% chance) for a stray strong to severe thunderstorm, especially if the thunderstorm complexes and associated stratiform rain/clouds sufficiently break apart this morning. The 00Z runs of the HREF/REFS ensemble and RAP deterministic do suggest lingering instability of around 1000 J/kg beneath 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear. The main hindrance is synoptic support remaining to our northeast in the Ohio River Valley, and to the southwest in the Red River Valley. Additionally, forecast soundings show a slight capping inversion at around 800 mb, which may limit over development and strength of potential afternoon storms. That said, continue to expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (20-50% chance). Any stronger storm that can develop would be capable of damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph. Strong cold front moves through this evening: The main cold front is forecast to quickly move through from west to east between 5 PM and midnight this evening. With the passage, winds will sharply shift to northwesterly, increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Additionally, due to the remnant meager instability ahead of the front (but slight capping aloft), a thin line of gusty low-topped showers may be associated with the frontal passage (50-80% chance). These could bring gusts briefly up to 30-40 mph. The cold front will usher in much cooler air, with lows tonight in the 40s, and highs in the lower to middle 50s Friday. Given remnant clouds and strong cold air advection from gusty winds up to 30-35 mph, some areas may even struggle to reach 50 F on Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Patchy frost, and perhaps a freeze, possible this weekend: As the cold front dives through the Gulf, a rather abnormal high pressure system (~99.5th percentile for this time of year) will move through our region over the course of the weekend. This will keep highs cooler (well actually quite seasonable) in the 60s Saturday and Sunday. With calmer winds and clear skies beneath the high, though, lows will be colder, dropping into the 30s. This will bring a frost potential both Saturday and Sunday mornings, but especially Sunday morning when winds are forecast to be calmest, and where the eastern Ozarks are forecast to range from 30-34 F. Current Frost probabilities (using <35 F as a proxy) are 15-40% along and north of I-44, and in the eastern Ozarks, on Saturday morning. Then, a 50-95% chance east of Highway 5 on Sunday morning. Current Freeze probabilities (<32 F) are only pockets of 5-10% Saturday morning (mainly in valleys). Then, a 20-50% chance in the eastern Ozarks Sunday morning. For some context, the average first frost date for the eastern Ozarks ranges from Oct. 10-15, while the average first freeze data ranges from Oct. 17-22. So while we have had quite warm temperatures September and the first half of October, the first frost/freeze is actually coming around right on time in terms of climatology. Temperatures quickly rebound to above normal into next week: Those fall-like temperatures will not last long, though, as global ensembles are in pretty good agreement of a ridge amplifying over the region in response to a deep low digging into the western CONUS. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s on Monday, reaching around 80 F by Wednesday. CPC agrees with the current forecast, giving us a 70-80% chance of above normal temperatures from October 20-24. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A system continues to support scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the area through tonight. Periods of MVFR to IFR flight conditions accompany this activity, with reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles and ceilings around 900 to 2500 feet at times. Widespread reduced ceilings along a frontal passage late this afternoon and evening. Winds will turn from southwest this afternoon to west-northwest with the front. Wind gusts around 20 to 30 knots persist behind the frontal passage through Friday. A break in the clouds Friday morning before additional low-level clouds advect into the area Friday afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Perez