FXUS66 KSEW 170304 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 804 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .UPDATE... Warm conditions have come to an end this evening as a frontal system approaches the region, bringing a round of showers along with it. Seas across the outer coastal waters will rise early Saturday morning as the system moves over the region, resulting in the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for waves 10 feet or higher across the outer coastal waters. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast remains on track with a return to more fall-like weather over the weekend. 15 && .SYNOPSIS... Wetter and cooler weather arrives tonight into Saturday. Sunday will remain cool with showers in the mountains. Conditions look to dry up through the first half of the week with a weak front may reaching the area on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A ridge will shift eastward tonight into Saturday, allowing a trough and a front to move through the area. At this time, we're continuing to see the bulk of the rain falling late tonight into the early morning, affecting areas along the coast and the mountains. Post front, we'll see a convergence zone set up along the Snohomish/King county line for lingering showers. The high temperature will cool to temps in the upper 50s, to lower 60s. Cooler but dry on Sunday with lingering showers in the Cascades, high temperatures will continue to remain in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest ensemble guidance shows an upper level low off the coast on Monday, barely clipping our area, resulting in mostly a dry day, with areas along the coast seeing a shower or two. This system will weaken into Tuesday as it rotates away from our area, leaving western WA in light and dry offshore flow. High temps stay in the upper 50s, with a weak front slated to enter the area Wednesday into Thursday for a chance of rain. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION... VFR cigs and visbys have returned to western Washington this afternoon. Surface winds are light and generally south to southwesterly at 7 kts or less. Expect these conditions to continue into this evening. The next weather system will arrive overnight into Saturday morning, bringing light rain to much of the region. Cigs are expected to go down to MVFR between 07-09Z for all terminals except KOLM where IFR cigs are more likely. Rain will generally ease after 17Z with VFR cigs for the remainder of the day. KSEA...VFR cigs are to continue this afternoon and evening with southwesterly flow. The next weak frontal system will be arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning. The bulk of the rain will be done by 17Z, with isolated showers possible in the afternoon. Cigs tomorrow morning may become MVFR for brief periods of time, but the prevailing category will be VFR. 21 && .MARINE... A frontal system will move through late tonight into Saturday morning. Seas will be between 8-10 feet tomorrow, more so in the offshore waters. High pressure building over the waters Saturday afternoon will remain through Sunday. Another system will move by west of the coastal waters Monday. High pressure will rebuild over the area Tuesday with seas subsiding back down to 4 to 6 feet by Tuesday. Inherited small craft advisory for westerlies in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca for Saturday still looks good and will remain in place. Given current forecast for seas, will also add a small craft advisory for the Outer Coastal waters as seas look to be steadily around 10 ft for that zone for much of the day. 21/18 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-EastEntrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$