FXUS61 KRNK 192356 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 756 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. Timing of the arrival of precipitation is slightly later. Storms will begin to develop mid afternoon, right along the Blue Ridge. However, more scattered coverage of showers/storms happens tomorrow evening for the mountains, as the front moves in and stalls over the area. An Air Quality Alert has been issued for Caswell, Rockingham, and Stokes Counties in NC through 12AM Thursday due to code orange for ground level ozone. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues into tomorrow with record- breaking to near record-breaking heat possible through tomorrow. Cooler weather is expected late week into Memorial Day weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front tomorrow. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A heat wave continues with record-breaking heat possible through Wednesday. Cooler weather late week into Memorial Day weekend. Southerly flow will persist across the Eastern CONUS through tomorrow due to a large Bermuda high in the western Atlantic. 500mb heights will continue to remain elevated tomorrow ahead of the cold front. With the cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms not expected to reach the area until late in the afternoon and evening, high temperatures are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. With more scattered cu and upper level cirrus from showers and thunderstorms, temperatures are expected to be a little lower tomorrow compared to today. Although heat indices will not be dangerously high during this heat wave, it has been nearly a year since temperatures have been over 90 degrees for several days in a row. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and loose fitted clothing to help reduce the risk of heat illnesses. Relief from the heat arrives by Thursday, once the cold front moves past the area, with much cooler weather and highs in the 60s/70s the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple opportunities for precipitation through the weekend beginning with a cold front on Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach the region from the northwest as an upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system slide east through southern Quebec and Ontario. The lagging cold front looks to provide some forcing for shower and thunderstorm activity, with modest deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range Wednesday afternoon. This amount of deep layer shear combined with instability values in the 500-1000 J/Kg will likely lead to some multicellular clusters of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening across the region. With these shear and instability values, some hail and damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out across the area. With this potential, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) remains in place to account for severe weather potential across portions of Virginia on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday, the cold front looks to become quasi-stationary across Virginia and the Tennessee valley. As this occurs, high pressure looks to push across the Great Lakes region leading to east/northeast flow across the forecast area. This will lead to some isentropic ascent across the area as warm moist air from the south rides up over this cool but shallow pocket of air at the surface. With stable air at the surface, the threat for severe weather looks to be minimal; however, shower activity looks very likely with rain forecast throughout the day areawide. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, with elevated instability on the order of 100-500 J/Kg forecast between the 700-500mb layer from CAM guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST. Wedging looks to persist on Friday as the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes looks to slide northeast towards the Quebec/Ontario border. This will maintain wedging areawide as a surface low develops across the central Mississippi valley. With upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure maintaining dominance over the western Atlantic, continued warm moist air is expected to be advected north into the region through the weekend. A warm front associated with the aforementioned surface low pressure system looks to push north through the weekend; however, with the high pressure over eastern Canada forecast to settle into the Northeast by the weekend, wedging does not look to erode until possibly early next week. With the aforementioned moisture advecting north along this wedge, light to moderate rainfall associated with isentropic lift looks to persist through the holiday weekend and into early next week. While this may ruin outdoor holiday weekend plans, it will hopefully bring much needed rainfall to the region at a steady enough rate to provide some agricultural and drought relief to the area. Although repeated rainfall looks to occur into early next week, widespread convectively enhanced rainfall is not looking very likely, therefore flooding potential remains very localized. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Area-wide VFR flight conditions continue this evening as high pressure remains dominant. The few isolated showers/storms that popped up earlier have now dissipated, and no rain is expected overnight and through mid-afternoon Wednesday. VFR will persist at all terminals until then, though fog may briefly form at LWB between 10-12z. It is not expected to be dense if it does form, likely only causing MVFR. For Wednesday, near calm overnight winds increase to around 5-10 knots in the afternoon from the south/southwest. Between 20-21z, scattered storms will begin to develop along the Blue Ridge and points west, which would bring sub-VFR to any terminal they impact. Coverage increases near the end of the TAF period tomorrow evening, though storms will remain scattered as a cold front pushes into the area. Any storm could be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, though severe weather would be isolated to the strongest storms. DAN will remain well southeast of the convection, keeping VFR through the end of the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Scattered showers/storms will continue for Wednesday night, with sub-VFR likely. Only DAN will likely avoid the rain until Thursday. Rain showers and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week as the front slows down over the Mid Atlantic, which will lead to periods of sub- VFR at all terminals each day through the weekend. This typical summertime pattern with daily chances of afternoon showers/storms will persist into next week. Note: Bluefield (KBLF) ASOS is currently experiencing a technical outage due to a major power supply failure. Replacement parts have been ordered. ETA of repair is currently unknown. AMD NOT SKED is being appended to its TAF. && .CLIMATE... Record-breaking heat is possible for Wednesday. Here are the current records and our current forecast. Wednesday, May 20, 2026 Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Forecast High Roanoke 98 in 1934 70 in 1998 93 Lynchburg 96 in 1941 68 in 1902 94 Danville 97 in 1996 68 in 2018 96 Bluefield 87 in 1996 66 in 1996 83 Blacksburg 90 in 1934 66 in 1893 88 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Wednesday night for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$DISCUSSION...EB AVIATION...AS/JCB CLIMATE...RCS