FXUS61 KRNK 170706 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 306 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation discussion has been updated. A Freeze Warning has been issued for late tonight into Sunday morning for the mountains, while a Frost Advisory has been issued for the foothills. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain this morning, with clearing skies and breezy winds from the north this afternoon. 2) Confidence remains high for areas of frost and freezing temperatures across the mountains and foothills on Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain this morning, with clearing skies and breezy winds from the north this afternoon. In the wake of a cold front's recent passage across the lower Mid-Atlantic, will now turn our attention to the increasing coverage of rain across the Piedmont as an upper level trough approaches the central Appalachians from the west. Light to occasionally moderate rain will overspread the area before dawn, with the greatest coverage occurring across the Piedmont, where a few locations may receive in excess of a half inch. The remainder of our area will receive a quarter inch of rain, or less. After sunrise, rain will decrease from west to east, with the last of the showers exiting the Southside, coupled with decreasing cloud cover during mid afternoon. Winds will remain breezy from the north through the day, with gusts ranging from 20 mph for much of the lower Mid-Atlantic, to as high as 35 mph along the higher mountain ridges. Speeds will gradually diminish during this evening into tonight as high pressure approaches, however latest data suggests that somewhat breezy conditions may persist through dawn Sunday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence remains high for areas of frost and freezing temperatures across the mountains and foothills on Sunday morning. The passage of high pressure east along the Ohio River Valley early Sunday will result in the coolest overnight temperatures so far this autumn season. With clear skies areawide, believe temperatures across the mountains will fall into the upper 20s to the low 30s in the more sheltered river valleys. Confidence is high that areas of frost will develop elsewhere through the foothills, even where temperatures will hold in the mid-30s. Latest data suggests that winds may remain a little too breezy across the Piedmont for the widespread formation of frost, but may see pockets of frost develop where winds can manage to diminish to near-calm speeds for a few hours. The combination of frost and chilly temperatures tonight will introduce a strong probability that sensitive vegetation will be damaged or killed by the cold. Efforts should be made today to protect sensitive vegetation be covering it or moving it indoors. Looking to Monday morning, temperatures will again range from the upper 20s to the low 30s across the mountains and the foothills, reintroducing the potential for cold and areas of frost capable of damaging or killing sensitive vegetation. Latest data suggests that low pressure will linger off the Carolina coast through the early half of the coming workweek, before shifting east during the 2nd half of the week. Impacts from this system are most likely to be limited for our area, though occasional rounds of shower activity may advance as far west as the Highway 29 corridor. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The approach of an upper level trough is supporting low VFR to MVFR ceilings, as well as areas of rain across the central Appalachians this morning. This rain will diminish in coverage from west to east during late morning into this afternoon. As drier air arrives in the wake of the departing trough, cloud bases will lift to VFR levels during late morning and early afternoon, before clouds scatter during mid-afternoon to early evening, with skies becoming clear after sunset. Winds will remain from the north through the day, with gusts ranging from 20kt for most of the area, to as high as 35kt along the higher mountain ridges. Speeds will gradually diminish during this evening into tonight into the 2kt to 7kt range. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Additional clouds and showers may return for the middle of next week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ007-009>020. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ022>024- 032>035. NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ001-002-018. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ003-019. WV...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ042>044-507- 508. && $$ DISCUSSION...NF AVIATION...NF