FXUS61 KRLX 231749 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 149 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 18Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. Little to no modifications were necessary to the forecast this afternoon. General thunder risk across the northern CWA has since been erased from the Day 1 outlook, yielding a clean eight day thunderstorm outlook risk for the Central Appalachians. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. 2) Weather pattern shifts back into an unsettled state for the second half of the week amid passing disturbances. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Chamber of Commerce weather rounds out the weekend under the guise of building high pressure. Some afternoon cumulus fields have sprouted overhead today, but is not expected to form into showers or storms within our forecast area. A similar forecast sets up for the next several days while the surface high remains nestled over the region, allowing for a welcome reprieve from the unsettled weather pattern we found ourselves in so far this month. Cool temperatures and low humidity yields daytime highs spanning the 60s to low 80s, elevation dependent, and overnight lows tumbling down into the 40s and 50s. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will then become nudged offshore after midweek as upper level troughing swings into the Ohio Valley. Embedded shortwaves will promote periods of showers and storms for Thursday onward. We could also see influence from a disturbance churning off the eastern seaboard later on in the week. Whether an uptick in the risk for severe weather returning to the area with these waves remains uncertain this far out in the forecast. Soil recovery that is anticipated to take place during the first half of the week should aid in limiting any initial flooding concerns. Heavy downpours and training storms will be closely monitored, however, for localized issues heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Blossoming cumulus fields this afternoon will take on a much different appearance than previous days as further development into showers and storms is not expected in our airspace. High pressure settling into the Ohio Valley will yield a stretch of much quieter flight conditions today and into the start of the new week. Afternoon clouds, coupled with mountain breezes, will fade this evening. Some river valley fog and low stratus may develop late tonight into Monday morning for our sheltered terminals, followed by another day of prevailing VFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR conditions are not expected through midweek. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None.KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05