FXUS61 KRLX 230614 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 214 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the last forecast package were made at this time. The only slight difference was that there is less of a chance for precipitation and thunderstorms for today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. 2) The next real chance for shower and thunderstorm activity is Thursday associated with a frontal passage. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In the wake of cold frontal passage this morning northwesterly flow bringing in an abundant of dry air aloft along with surface high pressure building in will provide quiet weather to the area for the rest of today and possibly through midweek. A nice cool down period will commence as well as dew pints only climbing to the 60s during the daytime and 50s during the overnights which will promote dry and cool days through midweek. During the daytime, highs will stay well below seasonable for this time of year and the region will mainly be dry for the most part. Daytime highs will return to around normal after midweek. KEY MESSAGE 2... The next chance for shower or thunderstorm activity will be on Thursday as another broad low pressure system traversing across the Great Lakes bringing unsettled weather to the region. This feature will drop in a cold frontal boundary through the area and will slide through into Friday. It is a little too far out to determine the severe threat, however forecast soundings indicate weak instability and shear so the severe parameters are not impressive as of now. One thing there is an abundant of is moisture and long skinny CAPE along with high DCAPE values and PWATs, therefore the environment might support the threat of flash flooding although after the aforementioned dry spell it would take a lot to cause issues unless we get hit with strong to severe storms which will likely cause heavy downpours. If areas were to get repeatedly hit and exceed flash flood guidance then there could be issues with flood prone areas. We will have to monitor the situation to get a better grasp on the threats, if any, from this main feature for Thursday. A very subtle short wave may bring diurnal chances for shower/storm activity on Friday during the daytime as well as on Saturday as another subtle shortwave crosses the region, however chances remain very low at this time. A weak disturbance is then forecast to impede the area on Sunday keeping low chances for precipitation and/or thunderstorm activity on the table through Sunday. Temperatures will rebound during this time frame for the weekend to about the climatological norm and southwesterly flow will pump moisture back into the region allowing dewpoints getting back to the 70 degree mark or slightly above for the weekend bringing back summertime conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold frontal passage is taking place and the front will exit by the mid morning. This feature is promoting surface flow and stronger flow right off the surface both enough to deter much fog formation. Not to mention low clouds lingering along and ahead of the front that is bringing down a few sites to MVFR/IFR such as CKB/EKN/BKW which should only last through the morning. Once any lingering CIGs and patchy fog lifts after 13Z, VFR will dominate the rest of this period until tonight when valley fog is expected to develop under calm and clear conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/23/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...JZ