FXUS61 KRLX 230529 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 129 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 712 PM Update... Aviation discussion update for ~00z TAFs. 514 PM Update... Expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to cover portions of southern West Virginia and our northeastern Kentucky counties. 158 PM Update... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia this afternoon for storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe weather potential grows in earnest this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Storms will be capable of produce damaging winds, hail, and heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding. 2) In the wake of the front, a stretch of dry weather settles into the region alongside a brief cool down in temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... 514 PM Update... The severe thunderstorm watch that goes until 9 PM tonight has been expanded to include portions of southern WV and all of northeastern KY. This is a conditional risk as previous rounds of storms have weakened instability some across the area. HRRR and RAP still show pockets of 2,500 to 3,500 CAPE across the area in locations where storms have not moved through yet. These will be areas to watch for pop up strong to severe thunderstorms as another round is projected to move through this afternoon and evening. 158 PM Update... Earnest shower and thunderstorm development is underway across the Ohio River Valley out ahead of a cold front slated to pass overhead tonight into Sunday morning. An unstable airmass preceding the front has yielded optimal conditions for cumulus to quickly develop further into scattered showers and storms. With destabilization quickly arising, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued in collaboration with the Storm Prediction Center and neighboring offices. This Watch currently encompasses portions of southeast Ohio and north-central West Virginia, where severe weather may be observed within the next few hours. Additional expansion of the Watch is not out of the question for the southern half of the forecast area, but will continue to monitor the evolution of storms to determine how the rest of the afternoon and evening will shake out. Storms preceding the front today will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding. While some soil recovery has occurred in locations who recently faced a multitude of days featuring flooding, additional rainfall could invigorate further hydro impacts across the region. Storms will be progressive in nature, which should help to alleviate a response from instantaneous rainfall rates, but locations would then be susceptible to any training effects that may set up through the course of the evening. Convection marches into the post-sunset timeframe, but will gradually diminish with the progression of the front overnight. Precipitation will then bank up along the northeast WV mountains by early Sunday morning and wrap up altogether by daybreak once the front has completed its passage through the mountains. KEY MESSAGE 2... In the wake of the cold front, Sunday will feature the start of dry weather that stretches into the start of next week. High pressure settling into the Ohio Valley will yield a push of dry air, alongside much cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will span the 60s along the mountains and 70s to low 80s in the lower elevations, while overnight conditions will feature low temperatures tumbling down into the 50s and 60s. Next opportunity for precipitation arrives for the second half of the work week, when a warming trend instigates diurnally driven showers and storms over the Central Appalachians. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold frontal passage is taking place and the front will exit by the mid morning. This feature is promoting surface flow and stronger flow right off the surface both enough to deter much fog formation. Not to mention low clouds lingering along and ahead of the front that is bringing down a few sites to MVFR/IFR such as CKB/EKN/BKW which should only last through the morning. Once any lingering CIGs and patchy fog lifts after 13Z, VFR will dominate the rest of this period until tonight when valley fog is expected to develop under calm and clear conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions from fog and low stratus may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 08/23/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H L H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L H M M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H M M L H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible in low stratus and fog Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05/LTC AVIATION...JZ