FXUS61 KRLX 200733 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 333 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Marginal Risk for severe storms today has expanded northwestward to encompass parts of southeast Ohio and continues to highlight a wind and hail threat. A soaking holiday is still on tap for Memorial Day in response to a wafting frontal boundary. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers and thunderstorms blanket the forecast area today amid an advancing cold front. Activity today could serve up damaging wind gusts from stronger storms and localized high water issues within heavier downpours and/or training cells. 2) The end of the work week into Memorial Day weekend will feature episodic rounds of showers and storms with the frontal boundary hung up over the region. Cooler temperatures on Thursday will gradually rebound towards unseasonably warm readings by the end of the weekend and into the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level troughing in the Great Lakes region will drive a cold front into the forecast area today, beginning a stretch of active weather through the holiday weekend. Radar trends at the time of writing depicts scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms streaming through Ohio and grazing our far northwestern zones. As the front slips into the forecast area today, moisture drawing up ahead of the boundary will help serve up additional rounds of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Messaging has remained unchanged for convective activity progged for this afternoon, with an axis of destabilization taking place in locations that remain south of the frontal boundary. Only minor modifications were made to the Day One convective outlook, which now expands the Marginal Risk back into our southeast Ohio counties. This suggests a slightly slower progression of the front and more opportunity for instability to make an appearance during peak heating hours. Adequate CAPE and shear levels support isolated damaging winds with storms today in addition to a lesser threat for hail. Storms will be ongoing late tonight along the higher terrain as the frontal boundary sluggishly passes overhead, but becoming mainly stratiform rain in the wake of FROPA. Forecast rainfall amounts ranging from half an inch to an inch from today into Thursday morning will help to put a dent in our prevailing drought conditions. Early morning CAMs do suggest a ribbon of higher amounts streaming in late this evening into the overnight hours from southwestern West Virginia up into the northeast mountains associated with a burst of heavier rain. This could impose localized water issues as heavy, and potentially repetitive, showers and storms press up through this corridor. With climatologically high PWATs invading the area today, floated around the idea of flash flooding concerns, but opted to hold off with this issuance as 3 hour flash flood guidance for the CWA remains above two inches, coupled with antecedent dry soils so far this spring. KEY MESSAGE 2... The frontal boundary will complete its passage through the Central Appalachians Thursday morning, but will become hung up over the Carolinas and the Mississippi Valley as it contends with a strong area of high pressure parked offshore. The close proximity of the boundary will result in ongoing showers and storms for our mountainous areas and as far west as the Charleston metro area during the day Thursday, while locations to the north and west relish in drier weather courtesy of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. The front will continue to promote unsettled weather over the area through the end of the week as the boundary remains draped just to our south, eventually lifting back north as a warm front heading into the holiday weekend. Widespread chances for rain and afternoon thunderstorms prevail as moisture continues usher in from the southwest as we remain in this holding pattern due to the nettlesome front. Impacts from this multi-day soaking rain could eventually be observed as local creeks and streams gradually become overwhelmed by excessive runoff. Cooler temperatures infiltrate the area on Thursday in the wake of the cold front, bringing an end to the early season heatwave. Should see temperatures gradually rebound each day as the aforementioned boundary lifts as a warm front, returning daytime highs to unseasonably warm readings for Sunday and Memorial Day. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Overnight showers and storms crossing through the heart of Ohio will slowly progress southeastward this morning in response to an advancing cold front. This front will serve up additional activity throughout the day, with a gradual decline in ceilings by this afternoon along and behind the boundary. VFR conditions to start will be followed by a period of SHRA/VCTS late this morning into the afternoon, then concluding the valid TAF period with crashing ceilings. By late tonight, all terminals are progged to drop to low MVFR to LIFR/IFR amid ongoing moderate to heavy rain. This boundary is expected to stir up active weather for the end of the week and into the holiday weekend, likely resulting in restricted flight conditions as a result. Should see a wind shift from southwest to northwest throughout the day amid the encroaching cold front. Outside of strong winds produced by thunderstorms, occasional gusts around 15kts could be observed this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium on Wednesday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with showers and storms on Wednesday may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with showers and/or low stratus, especially in/near the mountains. Brief IFR is also possible at times Friday through the weekend with showers and/or thunderstorms. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05