FXUS61 KRLX 180936 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 536 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Forecast Discussion update. 243 AM update... Portions of our northeast mountains have been clipped with a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening, with the bulk of activity streaming into the Pittsburgh, State College, and Baltimore/Washington forecast office areas. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot temperatures, reminiscent of mid to late summer, takes center stage for the start of the week amid strong upper level height rises. Peak afternoon temperatures reaching the lower 90s Monday and Tuesday could stir up heat impacts to sensitive populations. 2) Low end chances for diurnally driven showers and storms along the mountains late this afternoon. A strong cold front sweeping through the region Wednesday will bring the return of widespread showers and storms, along with relief from the heat. Daily chances for precipitation rounds out the work week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure centered off the Carolina coast will bolster strong upper level height rises for the Central Appalachians the next two days. This will result in peak afternoon temperatures stemming into the upper 80s to low 90s for areas outside of the higher terrain both today and Tuesday. Heat index levels are not anticipated to reach thresholds warranting headlines this week, however temperatures this hot so early in the season could cause heat sensitivity impacts to vulnerable populations. If spending time outdoors the next few days, ensure you adequately hydrate and take frequent breaks from the heat. A mid week cold front will bring relief from this stretch of hot weather, with temperatures returning to their seasonable norms for the second half of the week. Amid this warm spell, temperature records could be neared at a few sites. More details on climate records can be seen in the Climate Section further below. KEY MESSAGE 2... While robust high pressure to our southeast supplies subsidence and resulting dry weather to most of the forecast area today, a few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms could sprout within afternoon cumulus fields along the northeast mountains. Low end chance POPs were included for our higher mountain zones late in the afternoon into the evening, with the bulk of convection streaming northeastward into neighboring forecast office territories. This notion reflects nicely with the Marginal Risk for severe weather introduced with this morning's Day One outlook issuance from SPC. Dry weather then settles back into the entire forecast area late tonight through much of the day Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, the risk for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms increases as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley. A long corridor stemming from southwest Texas to the Great Lakes region has been placed in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Tuesday, with lessening potential for eastern Ohio into West Virginia as storms encroach amid weakening instability around sunset. Overnight thunderstorm activity is not out of the question as the onset of precipitation overspreads the forecast area Tuesday night, becoming mostly showers by the predawn hours. The frontal boundary will be draped overhead on Wednesday, with chances for strong to severe storms resuming in the afternoon for locations ahead of the front that can achieve some destabilization. The cold front will struggle to make much progress out of the area due to the strength of the Bermuda high. This will cause the boundary to become stagnant across the Carolinas and Mississippi Valley and eventually retreating back to the north late within the valid forecast period. As a result, unsettled weather triumphs for the second half of the work week and into the weekend, with a steady plume of moisture feeding into the region and maintaining daily opportunities for showers and storms. This will bring mostly beneficial rainfall to our drought stricken forecast area. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Generally quiet flight conditions this morning aside from river valley fog that has formed around EKN. While additional development could occur around CRW before sunrise, all other terminals should remain VFR. Fog erosion will then lead to widespread VFR conditions through the remainder of the valid TAF period. Afternoon southwesterly breezes possible across the area before decoupling late this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally dense fog may bounce in and out of EKN and CRW this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/18/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .Climate... Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------- Mon, 5/18 | Tue, 5/19 | -------------------------------------- CRW | 91 / 92 (1982) | 91 / 95 (1931) | HTS | 90 / 92 (1962) | 90 / 92 (1996) | CKB | 89 / 92 (1962) | 89 / 90 (1959) | PKB | 90 / 95 (1962) | 90 / 90 (1964) | BKW | 85 / 87 (1996) | 85 / 89 (1996) | EKN | 86 / 89 (1911) | 87 / 93 (1996) | -------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05 CLIMATE...05