FXUS61 KRLX 162333 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 733 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 00Z aviation discussion. As of 431 PM... Expanded Freeze Watch into the balance of our counties. As of 138 PM... A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front brings showers, storms, and gusty winds today, followed by colder temperatures and continued breezes tonight. 2) Widespread frost/freeze conditions are expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning. 3) Quiet weather and a warming trend are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low-pressure system traveling northeast along the Canada/New England border will continue to drag a cold front across the middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians today. Mainly rain and gusty winds have been accompanying the frontal passage, though some thunderstorms could also develop this afternoon. While the severe potential for today is low, a stronger gust or two could be possible with storms this afternoon. Additionally, given wet ground from previous rain, even sub-severe wind gusts may down trees. Cold air advection will bring a noticeable drop in temperatures behind the front, and is anticipated to sustain breezy conditions into Saturday. Precipitation starts tapering off from west to east once the axis of an upper trough passes overhead tonight. In the higher elevations of the northeast mountains, rain may transition to a wintry mix before precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning. Snow is not expected to accumulate. KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry air advecting into the region during the day on Saturday should yield widespread dew point values below 32F Saturday evening into Sunday morning. While some modest flow with cold advection may continue on the south side of the high heading into early Sunday morning, think at least valleys in the Metro Valley and southern coalfields will decouple sufficiently to radiate out to the freezing mark for a few hours heading into daybreak. Have expanded the Freeze Watch to cover the balance of our counties for Sunday morning. If coverage of freezing temperatures is insufficient to close the growing season, additional frost/freeze highlights are possible for Monday morning. As of 138 PM... High pressure and drier air build in from the west on Saturday, bringing an end to any light precipitation lingering over the northeast mountains. Breezy conditions are expected to gradually relax throughout the day, then calm and clear conditions set in for Saturday night. Temperatures remain below normal through the day, then overnight lows dive down into the mid 20s to 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for portions of the mountains, northern West Virginia, southwest Virginia, and southeast Ohio, where there is highest confidence in below freezing temperatures developing late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Frost Advisories are likely to be needed for the remainder of the area. KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure is expected to sustain drier weather from Sunday through at least the middle of next week while a low spirals off of the Virginia/Carolina coast. Although temperatures will trend warmer during this time, one more frosty morning could be possible on Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The surface cold front has cleared southeast of all terminals, but an upper-level trough crossing the area will sustain lingering light rain showers and mist through much of the overnight hours. Flight categories will be predominantly MVFR across lowland terminals where ceilings will generally range between 1000 and 2500 ft AGL. Steadier showers couldbriefly reduce visibility to 3 SM a times, but generally expect limited impacts. Across the higher terrain, persistent northwesterly upslope flow will keep IFR ceilings below 1000 ft locked in at KBKW. Surface winds will remain northwesterly to northerly at 8 to 12KTs with occasional higher gusts, especially just after daybreak Saturday as better mixing overlaps with stronger flow aloft prior to gradients weakening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lowland terminals could briefly drop below 1000 ft AGL into IFR ceilings overnight. At KBKW, ceilings could lift into low MVFR earlier than forecast Saturday morning if low-level flow veers slightly more northerly, decreasing the upslope component. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... Calm winds and clear skies will favor late-night and early- morning dense river valley fog producing LIFR visibility restrictions Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ DISCUSSION...JP/20 AVIATION...JP