FXUS62 KRAH 200553 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 155 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Highs Thu continue to trend warmer, due to a slightly slower backdoor front. * Latest NBM still looks too warm for Fri highs in the NW/Triad, so have held highs on the low side of guidance. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 155 AM Wednesday... 1) Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. 2) We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. && .DISCUSSION... As of 155 AM Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Continued very hot today, and Thu now looks almost as warm for much of the area. We'll see at least one more day of hot temperatures today, as persistence rules, given little to no change in the overall pattern. Confidence remains quite high that we'll see continued anomalously hot weather, as strong ridging near the surface through the mid levels persists, including 500 mb heights and 850 mb temps in the 95th-99th percentile according to the HREF. Low level thicknesses hold around 20 m above normal today, favoring highs once again in the low-mid 90s, with isolated upper 90s. We'll still see a lowering of dewpoints with deep mixing, such that apparent temps will hold under 100F, however the Heat Risk will again be at level 2 of 4 (Moderate), with isolated patches of level 3 of 4 (High), indicating highly anomalous heat that could lead to heat illnesses, especially for more sensitive or vulnerable populations. And the intense sunshine and a generally light breeze will again elevate the WBGT index. As such, in addition to frequent water breaks, spending time resting in the shade is encouraged, especially for those working or exercising outdoors. We still expect a backdoor front to approach our northern border Thu, however the models continue a gradual slowing trend, with the front making slow progress through our northern tier of counties during the mid to late afternoon. This will allow much of the area S of the front (including areas along and S of Hwy 64) to heat up, given the still-high low level thicknesses near 15 m above normal, although the development of convective clouds in the afternoon (along with late-day showers and a few storms) should keep temps under today's highs. Expect highs from the low-mid 80s near the VA border ranging to the low 90s in our far S. KEY MESSAGE 2... We'll enter a wet pattern starting Thu afternoon, with above normal rain chances expected into the middle of next week. A wedge setup will lead to cooler temps Fri, particularly in the Piedmont. First, regarding temps Fri, the front will settle along the southern and eastern edges of the CWA Thu night, with cool high pressure nosing in from the north as its center shifts from the N Great Lakes across New England and just off the Northeast coast. This source high is fairly strong, ~1035 mb over SE Quebec by late Fri night, with current surface dewpoints in the 40s at its core. And it will be briefly anchored by confluent flow followed by a building narrow ridge aloft, which will favor a CAD event with wedging down through the Piedmont Fri. Have leaned closer to the NBM10Pct and mean statistical guidance for Fri highs across the N and W Piedmont, yielding highs in the upper 60s to around 70 from INT/GSO to TDF/HNZ, mid-upper 70s from Albemarle through the Triangle region to Rocky Mount, and low-mid 80s across the SE CWA. Temps might need to be tweaked downward in our far NW on Sat and even Sun as well, if models continue to indicate a stubborn cool/stable pool lingering over the Piedmont. Regarding rain chances, while the details remain murky, we're confident that we're entering a wet spell with fairly high rain chances overall for several days, although not every spot will see rain each day. Showers and scattered storms are expected to develop along the front across the N starting Thu afternoon, then this precip should settle south with the front through Thu night. The breakdown of our current mid level ridge will allow for an increasingly weakly-perturbed mid level SW flow from N Mexico across TX and the Mid South across NC, providing shots of mid level DPVA acting on PW values of 125-200% of normal, along with persistent deep low level moist isentropic upglide at 295-305K sourced from both the Gulf and Atlantic. At the surface, the front will eventually lift north (perhaps delayed by a lingering stable pool in the Triad), placing us in a warm sector in flow from the S and SW for multiple days. Locally briefly heavy rain totals are possible especially late Thu into Thu night, as strengthening SW 850 mb flow and increasing ascent along the front could lead to isolated heavier rain and propagating cells on the SW side of convection. The overall CAPE and deep layer bulk shear will be on the low end through this weekend, thus no severe weather is expected. With this persistent long and wavy SW flow from N Mexico into the Carolinas combined with high low-level moisture flux from the Gulf and Atlantic through the weekend and into early next week, our rain chances are expected to remain above normal, peaking each afternoon and evening Fri through at least Tue. While this would put a damper on the long holiday weekend, it would be a welcome respite from our ongoing drought conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions are generally expected across central NC over the 24 hour TAF period. While patchy fog can't be completely ruled out early this morning in the far SE (including FAY), current surface observations show only a couple sites near the southern NC coast are reporting reduced visibilities. Satellite imagery also depicts less coverage of fog compared to last night at this time, and model guidance (including the HREF, HRRR and RAP) is less bullish for fog. So opted to leave out mention in the FAY TAF, but it can't be totally ruled out in the far SE. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with S/SW winds in the 5-10 kt range. Outlook: Flight restrictions will return on Thursday as a cold front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms along with gusty NE winds to the region. Sub-VFR ceilings also look to persist into Friday in the Triad and potentially RDU as a CAD regime looks to set up over the region. Daily shower/storm chances will also be possible through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 95/1917 KRDU: 96/2022 KFAY: 99/2022 May 21: KRDU: 96/1941 KFAY: 99/1941 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 20: KGSO: 68/2022 KRDU: 69/2019 KFAY: 71/2022 May 21: KGSO: 67/2022 KRDU: 71/1898 KFAY: 71/2025 May 22: KFAY: 73/2004 May 23: KFAY: 72/2011 May 24: KRDU: 70/2011 KFAY: 72/2000 May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019 May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hartfield AVIATION...Danco/Helock CLIMATE...RAH