FXUS62 KRAH 161727 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 125 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * IFR ceilings are now forecast at RDU, FAY, and RWI late tonight into Saturday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 325 AM Friday... 1) Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. 2) There is still some potential for patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. && .DISCUSSION... As of 325 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Record heat today will be swept offshore by a strong cold front and following sharply cooler and wet conditions that will develop tonight into Sat. An increasingly-phased and high amplitude trough, apparent in GOES-E WV satellite data from nrn Hudson Bay to the cntl High Plains, will pivot across the ern US through late Sat-Sat night. A vigorous upper jet and front will accompany the trough, with a zone of strong and deep ascent that will overspread cntl NC tonight-Sat. At the surface, a backdoor front has drifted into the nrn Sandhills and the nw Piedmont this morning, about 20-30 miles farther swwd than previously forecast. While low overcast has developed within the pos-trontal regime and would typically slow/retard subsequent nwd retreat of the front, cooling behind the front and the related frontal inversion are not pronounced. Additionally, the MSL pressure pattern surrounding the front over the srn Middle Atlantic, between a 1021 mb high drifting off the coast of New England and a ~1019 mb one off the South Atlantic coast, appear to be reaching equilibrium this morning. As such, it remains likely that the front will retreat quickly nwd with the onset of diurnal heating, in strengthening flow and mass response ahead of the intense trough aloft and a related surface cyclone now deepening across MI. A pre-frontal, Appalachian- lee trough will sharpen across the nw Piedmont this afternoon and precede a strong cold front that will sweep across cntl NC tonight. A growing warm sector throughout cntl NC today will yield yet another day of record temperatures mostly between 85-90 F, accompanied by a gusty swly surface wind that will develop with daytime heating/mixing by midday-early afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to develop along the pre-frontal trough over the nw Piedmont by ~21-22Z, in a regime of weak MLCAPE of generally less than 500 J/kg, but where instability will be relatively maximized as cooling temperatures aloft edge east of the Appalachians. The band of showers will spread ewd and across the remainder of cntl NC this evening, along and immediately following the passing cold front. Anafrontal precipitation character will become increasingly stratiform and probably blossom after midnight, as the intense mid and upper-level trough and jet, and deep zone of Fgen, overspread the Carolinas. The precipitation band will then edge from west to east across cntl NC during the day Sat, with storm total rainfall amounts mostly between a quarter and half inch. It will otherwise turn sharply cooler, with highs Sat 25-30 F below those of today and about 10-15 F below average. A strong and gusty nly wind will make it feel even cooler. KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold Saturday and Sunday nights, with some patchy frost Sun morning and again Mon morning. Aloft, it is looking increasingly likely a low will close off within the parent trough as it tracks sewd across the region and offshore Sat/Sat night, though there remain differences wrt where and when that will occur. The low will likely sit/meander near or just off the Carolina/mid-Atlantic coast through much of the week. At the surface, the ~1036 mb high should lift newd from the OH Valley to the Canadian Maritimes Sat night through Sun night, while the ridge continues to extend swwd across the region. A low is expected to develop offshore, along the front, on Sat before cutting off from the parent trough and deepening as it meanders off the Southeast US/Carolina coast through at least Sun night, possibly through much of the week. However, a good bit of uncertainty remains wrt to this low and its impacts for central NC. Expect breezy conditions on Sun, with a strong pressure gradient between the deepening low offshore and the ridge over the area. The LLJ could remain quite stout on the back (NW) side of the low offshore through Sun night, with gusts of 25-35 kts possible with mixing on Sun, highest east. The jet may be stronger overnight (25-40 kts) both nights and over a much larger area, but those stronger winds are generally not expected to mix down to the surface. Still, some gusts of 15-25 kts cannot be ruled out Sun night given the latest guidance showing a little mixing overnight. There remains a fair amount of spread in the statistical guidance between high and low members for temperatures from Sat night onward, given the uncertainty wrt the low offshore and subsequent impacts. For highs, Sunday should be the coolest day, with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees expected. Highs should rebound a bit on Mon, but still remain below normal, with low to mid 60s forecast. For lows, with continued breezy conditions, generally decreasing cloud cover, and low-level thicknesses around 1320 dam Sat night, will err on the mean for lows, ranging from mid-upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE. With partly cloudy skies, perhaps slightly less breezy conditions, and low-level thicknesses increasing to around 1335 dam Sun night, expect similar lows ranging from upper 30s NW to mid 40s SE Mon morn. With the expected winds overnight/early morning, wind chill values in the low-mid 30s expected across much of the area Sat night, increasing slightly SE into the low 40s SE for Sun night. There could be some mid 30s lows in the usual cooler, sheltered areas of the Piedmont Sun and Mon mornings, especially if the skies clear out, possibly resulting in some patchy frost. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 PM Friday... TAF period: This afternoon, all terminals will have VFR conditions with gusty wind out of the southwest. A pre-frontal band during the late afternoon and evening could bring a round of convective showers to all sites with brief restrictions and stronger wind gusts. The shift to northwest wind with a cold front will occur late this evening at INT/GSO and after midnight at the other terminals, with MVFR ceilings and stratiform rain moving in through the night. It appears that INT/GSO should not drop below MVFR cigs, but RDU/RWI/FAY now all have IFR cigs in their newest forecast. Gusts may slacken slightly overnight, but considering the potency of the cold front, once gusts begin this afternoon, they may continue all the way through the TAF period. Outlook: All sites are likely to have showers and MVFR ceilings come to an end by Saturday evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along the cold front once it reaches the Atlantic Ocean, which could result in several days of intermittent showers at FAY/RWI, although confidence is low as to whether MVFR ceilings would also be present. Northerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt will also be possible each afternoon, with the lowest gusts at INT/GSO and the highest gusts at RWI. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: October 16: KGSO: 85/1953 KRDU: 86/1925 KFAY: 90/1925 Latest 90 F days: GSO: 10/12/1904 RDU: 10/14/2026 FAY: 10/26/1940 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWS/KCPAVIATION...Green