FXUS65 KPUB 200702 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 102 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the plains (storms expected to last well into the early AM hours over far eastern plains). - A few Strong to Severe Storms expected over the plains Thursday. - Gradual warming trend through the period (No significant fire weather concerns expected though through the period). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Today into Tonight... The main concern during the short term will be another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected over the southern mtns by early afternoon, moving onto the plains later this afternoon and over the far eastern plains this evening. Storms today are not expected to be all that strong, although small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially along the southern I-25 corridor. The one issue is the storms may last well into the early AM hours over the far eastern plains, especially north of US50. As for temp, it will be cool once again this afternoon, with max temps only int the U50s to L70s across the plains. The coolest weather over the plains will be over N El Paso county, with the warmest temperatures over the southern I-25 corridor, The San Luis Valley should see highs in the U60s. A couple of inches of snow will be possible at the higher elevations of the central mountains and Pikes Peak. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026 Overall trend in the weather during this period will be gradually warming temperatures. 70s on THursday will be replaced by temps approaching 90 by mid week next week. We will also it becoming drier. Fortunately, surface winds are not expected to be strong and widespread critical RH values are not anticipated, so fire weather concerns will be low. The main concern during this long term forecast period will be on Thursday as favorable shear will be in place and sufficient instability will be over the plains, and expect a good chance to see some rotating storms over the plains during this day as CAMS are showing some modest helicity swaths moving over the plains during the late afternoon and early evening time periods. Likewise I anticipate the possibility of large hail and damaging winds, with a low end tornado threat possible. SPC still has the fcst area under a marginal risk, but it does have a 2% percent tornado threat over all of the plains on the 06 UTC SWODY2. For Fri and Sat, we will see some thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, but expect the activity to be weaker and more isolated. Drier weather is expected the rest of the period, but we may see a ramp up in activity over the interior on Tuesday afternoon. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1102 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period as thick low level clouds persist and keep ceiling heights low. In addition, ongoing rain is expected to persist into the portions of the overnight hours, which will bring reduced visibilities as well. This rain is expected to end by early morning, with dry conditions lasting into the afternoon hours. With that said, showers and thunderstorms are again anticipated to push over the higher terrain and toward the TAF sites. These showers and storms may bring brief periods of reduced visibilities and sudden increase in winds. Otherwise, winds will continue to remain around and less than 10 knots through this TAF period. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. While dry conditions are expected through this TAF period, rain showers will be around with the San Luis Valley tonight, and these may impact the TAF site, bringing slightly reduced visibilities if so. Winds will remain light, at and less than 10 knots, through tomorrow morning, with winds quickly increasing in magnitude tomorrow afternoon as diurnal mixing develops. Otherwise, low to mid level clouds will steadily rise in heights through tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...SIMCOE