FXUS65 KPUB 191722 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1122 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and wetter weather expected today and tomorrow, with best chances for widespread precip coming in tonight. - Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible on Thursday, especially on our eastern plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 The post frontal cold airmass is finally here to stay, and critical fire weather conditions are not forecast for the next several days. Temperatures have fallen into the 30s and 40s across our plains and mountain valleys. With some lingering moisture and upslope in place, fog and freezing fog will be possible across the Pikes Peak region, the Arkansas River Valley, down into the Wet Mountain Valley and our mountain adjacent plains west of I-25. Frost Advisories have been been issued for many of these places that are into their growing seasons by now, and northern El Paso County remains in a Freeze Warning through 8 AM this morning as well. Temperatures look to stay cool under mostly cloudy skies today, though some clearing will be possible later this afternoon, especially further east where upsloping will be less impactful. Daytime highs are likely to remain in the 50s across the 1-25 corridor, with 60s for the San Luis Valley and the eastern plains. Some very light rain may be possible over our mountain adjacent plains and eastern mountains this morning as upslope deepens, but better chances for wetting rains move in after sunset as shortwave energy embedded in another trough out west comes through the region. Most areas along and east of the Continental Divide, and along and west of the I-25 corridor are expected to see chances for rain tonight into Wednesday morning. Snow levels look to drop down to 8,000 or 9,000ft in some areas, which should put some light snow accumulations on the higher peaks of the Sangres, the Wets, and the central mountains through the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night/early this morning in most places, though the Palmer Divide may drop down into the 33 to 34F degree range once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1234 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Wednesday.. We start out our Wednesday morning cool, cloudy, and with precip chances for most areas, but dry out gradually through the morning hours, especially for areas south of Highway 50. After a morning lull in precip chances though, another approaching trough looks to bring showers and thunderstorms back for most of the high country and portions of our plains. Daytime highs in the 50s and 60s and more stable conditions on the plains should limit any chances for severe storms as the trough approaches, but clearing over the high country may lead to a few stronger storms. Thursday.. Thursday could be an interesting day as our next trough digs in to our northwest and brings stronger forcing for possible severe thunderstorms to our region. Models bring its axis into western CO through the afternoon, with southerly and southeasterly surface flow out ahead of if it through much of the day. This brings 40 and 50 degree dewpoints back into the plains, and juices up instability as well. Shear looks to be forecast around 35kt to 45kt for much of the eastern plains, where 50 degree dewpoints look to be possible. Models are not in great agreement about where a dryline may set up obviously with the event being this far out, but it is safe to say that Thursday will need to be watched closely for severe potential across our plains. Friday Onwards.. Models keeps us in cool northwest flow behind the front on Friday, though showers and thunderstorms look to remain possible, especially over and near the higher terrain. We warm up through the weekend as high pressure tries to build to our southwest, but enough moisture looks to stay over the region to keep at least slight chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through the weekend. Winds look to stay on the weak side and humidity values look to stay above critical thresholds through the extended as well, so at this time fire danger is not expected. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1114 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026 MVFR to VFR cigs will persist for KCOS and KPUB into the evening before another round of showers pushes off the mountains during the evening dropping cigs back into the MVFR category for both terminals with -SHRA. Cigs/vis will likely drop into the IFR category after 06z at KCOS as southeast upslope winds continue. Cigs will continue into the morning hours before lifting during the late morning and afternoon. Winds will be predominantly southeast to easterly through the period. KALS will stay VFR through today with gusty southwest winds this afternoon. -SHRA may enter the terminal after 00z with VCSH possible into the overnight hours. Cigs will remain VFR but winds will lighten up towards 06z. Winds tomorrow will increase again out of the southwest and gust up to 30 kts in the afternoon. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...KT