FXUS66 KPQR 162135 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 235 PM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Conditions remain dry through this evening before a weak cold front brings low to moderate chances for light rain late tonight into Saturday morning. High pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. Low chances for rain on Monday as a low pressure system likely remains well offshore. Seasonable temperatures and dry weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another chance for light rain returns Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper level ridge shifting east over the Canadian Rockies while southwest flow increases aloft over the Pacific NW. Warm and dry weather continues through this evening while offshore surface pressure gradients weaken and the flow turns back onshore. Winds become more southerly ahead of a weak cold front that will approach the coast later this evening. As an upper level shortwave trough lifts across northwestern WA early Saturday, chances for light rain will increase along the coast and then spread inland through Sat morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Newport at the coast and from Eugene northward along the I-5 corridor. Conditions expected to dry out by the afternoon with northerly winds behind the front. Highs will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 60s across the interior valleys. Will need to keep an eye on Saturday night as clouds clear and temperatures drop into the 30s. Outside of the Cascades, the coolest temperatures are expected in the Upper Hood River Valley. Dry weather is expected on Sunday as a relatively flat shortwave ridge passes over the region. Seasonable temperatures continue with highs peaking in the mid-60s for most interior lowlands and mid-50s to lower 60s along the coast. Sunday night into Monday morning will bring another chance for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley and the southern Willamette Valley as lows could drop into the mid to upper 30s. /DH && .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Night...There is generally good agreement among models and their ensembles that a rather robust low pressure system will move across the northeastern Pacific toward the Oregon coast early Monday, but remain far enough offshore before dropping south to bring any meaningful impacts to the area. In fact, chances for even light rain have generally decreases to around 25% or less, mainly near the coast and Coast Range south of Astoria. The upper level trough over the Pacific is expected to split with the main low pressure area moving south toward the central California coast on Tuesday. Ensemble clusters remain in decent agreement for the upper level low to persist near the California coast on Wednesday, while shortwave ridging nudges into the Pacific NW. There is high confidence for dry conditions to persist across the area Tuesday through Wednesday, with temperatures warming back into the mid to upper 60s. More uncertainly returns later next week as another upper level trough begins to drop out of the Gulf of Alaska. Chances for rain increase on Thursday, though currently remain less than 40%. /DH && .AVIATION...Through 18z Saturday...Largely VFR conditions expected through 00z Sat along the coast and through 12z Sat inland. High cloud coverage will tend to increase ahead of an approaching front. Marine stratus will see 70-90% chances for IFR cigs at coastal terminals after 00-03z Sat, before chances for rain increase after 06-09z Sat. Highest confidence in rain is along the north OR/south WA coast (KAST, KTMK). Inland, chances for MVFR cigs reach 60-70% after 12z Sat while the chances for rain peak at 30-60% from 12-15z Sat. Gusty east winds continue through the western Columbia Gorge, supporting continued gusts to 20-30 kt at KTTD into this afternoon before the offshore pressure gradient eases as the frontal boundary approaches. Elsewhere, light winds inland and west to northwest winds along the coast will turn out of the south to southwest at around 5 kt ahead of the frontal passage. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with increasing high cloud cover through this evening and into tonight. A passing front will bring chances for MVFR cigs and light rain from 12-15z Sat. Light east winds may reach the terminal this afternoon before turning southerly ahead of the frontal passage tonight. -36 && .MARINE...Winds back today into tonight ahead of an approaching cold front which will traverse the waters late tonight, before veering out of the northwest Saturday morning behind the frontal passage. Seas of 5-7 ft at around 12 seconds otherwise continue through Saturday. The mid-period northwest swell will then build over the weekend, with seas rising to 8-10 ft. Chances for seas to exceed 10 ft reach 10-20% beyond 30 NM north of Cape Falcon. This swell will also pose a moderate risk for sneaker waves along the coast while overall seas remain relatively benign; caution should be used by those in or near the water along coastal beaches through this weekend. As another weather system looks to track southward well offshore of the Oregon and Washington coasts early next week, and may bring a period of steeper seas Monday into Tuesday although there remains uncertainty in the timing and potential peak wave height. The latest forecast depicts the westerly swell reaching 11-12 ft at 12-14 seconds Monday afternoon and evening before easing below 10 ft by Tuesday morning, with a 10-20% chance significant wave heights reach 15 ft or higher beyond 20 NM. -36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland