FXUS66 KPQR 161124 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 424 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Conditions remain dry with well above average temperatures. Easterly winds will gradually weaken as a trough approaches. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late tonight into Saturday morning, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Upper level ridging will continue shifting east as troughing over the northeast Pacific and Alaska progresses eastward. Conditions remain dry across the region with another day of above normal temperatures. Highs in the mid to upper 70s across the interior lowlands, 10-15 degrees above the normal low to mid 60s. Highs along the coast will be much closer to normal as the offshore pressure gradient continues to weaken, allowing westerly onshore flow to return and marine stratus to push into the coast. Highs expected to top out in the low to mid 60s. High level clouds will also increase through the day as the upper level trough progresses. The offshore pressure gradient between Troutdale and the Dalles will continue to weaken through the day which will gradually decrease easterly winds to less than 10 mph by the afternoon. An embedded shortwave trough passing to the north will glance the region, sending a cold front through the area tonight and into Saturday morning. This will bring moderate to low chances of light rain to northern portions of the forecast area for Saturday morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Lincoln City at the coast and from the Portland metro area northward, with highest chances for rain in the southwest WA Cascades. Conditions expected to dry out by the afternoon with northerly winds behind the front. Highs will be closer to normal, topping out in the mid to upper 60s across the interior valleys. Will need to keep an eye on Saturday night as clouds clear and temperatures drop into the 30s. Outside of the Cascades, the coolest temperatures are expected in the Upper Hood River Valley. -19/DH .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Dry weather expected on Sunday as flow aloft becomes more zonal with the passage of the shortwave trough. Highs very similar to Saturday peaking in the mid 60s for most interior lowlands and mid 50s to low 60s along the coast. Sunday night into Monday morning will bring another chance for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley and the southern Willamette Valley as lows could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Cluster analysis continues to depict a trough impacting the region Monday and Tuesday but trends have the trough taking a more southeast trajectory and just glancing NW OR and SW WA. Approximately 40% of ensemble members have light QPF for the Portland area while 60% of members have light QPF around Newport. Models continue to track this trough more towards northern California, limiting any decent rainfall across the forecast area. Chances for 24-hour rainfall totals exceeding 0.25 inches between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday have dropped to 10-15% along the coast and coast range, southern Willamette Valley, and the OR Cascade Foothills. By Wednesday, ensembles show the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure shifts over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. -19/DH && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Saturday...Upper-level high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period, with the exception of deteriorated conditions along the coast overnight through the early afternoon and low chances within the interior lowlands overnight. Specifically, there is a 50-60% chance of IFR and 40-50% chance of LIFR conditions along the coast between 13-23Z Fri, earliest at KONP and latest at KAST. As for inland terminals, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/IFR conditions between 11-18Z Fri, with the highest chances at KEUG. Expect mostly easterly winds until 18Z Fri, then becoming light and variable through the rest of the TAF period. The central and southern Willamette Valley will likely remain light and variable through the TAF period. Elevated winds at and east of KTTD will decrease towards 18-21Z Fri. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Breezy easterly winds continue to decrease tonight, with east winds around 4-6 kt expected through the rest of the TAF period beyond 11Z Fri. Additionally, there is a low 10-15% chance of LIFR/IFR CIGs between 12-18Z Fri. ~12 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Light east/northeasterly winds are transitioning to north/northwesterly winds over the waters through tonight as a thermal trough slowly breaks down. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-13 ft early next week. Uncertainty remains on how high seas will rise early next week due to uncertainty on the track of the low pressure system associated with the swell. There is a 15-30% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat Friday into early next week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland