FXUS65 KPIH 161842 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1242 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon highs gradually warm over the next several days. - Dry conditions continue through the weekend. - Wetter and cooler conditions return by mid-week next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A beautiful fall weekend is in store for East Idaho as daytime temperatures inch slightly warmer under the influence of high pressure. By Sunday, afternoon highs will reach the 60s across most lower elevations, ranging from right around 60 degrees in the northern portions of the Snake Plain to near 70 degrees across the Eastern Magic Valley and Raft River regions. Overnight lows will continue to drop into the 30s for most . Early next week, the upper-level pattern begins to shift as a strong low pressure system tracks south along the West Coast. Although deterministic guidance like the GFS shows the low swinging further offshore before dropping into the Desert Southwest in a split-flow setup, ensemble means still track the center close enough to the coast to maintain light precipitation chances across our area through the day Tuesday. Main moisture transport increases by mid-to-late week, with precipitation chances ramping up Wednesday night through Friday. Considerable forecast uncertainty remains late in the week regarding total precipitation amounts and timing. Ensemble clusters continue to differ on the depth and structural evolution of the southern closed low as it begins to open up and eject eastward. While the National Blend of Models (NBM) reflects a downward trend in QPF amounts heading into mid-week, widespread precipitation chances remain 30% to 45% through Wednesday, increasing to 50% to 70% Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 VFR conditions forecast under high pressure with light winds (outside of winds to around 10 kts today at KSUN) and mostly clear skies. Expect some high-level clouds to move in late tonight/overnight before skies clear again early Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Warming temperatures and very dry conditions will continue through at least the weekend thanks to high pressure overhead. Highs will warm into at least the 60s if not pushing towards 70 degrees in the lower elevations, especially in the eastern Magic Valley. Today and tomorrow look to be the driest days as far as min RHs go, around 12 to 20 percent in the Central Mountains and part of FWZ 422. Elsewhere, min RHs will range from 25 to 35 percent. Look for another system to bring cooler, wetter conditions back to the area next week. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DMH AVIATION...Cropp FIRE WEATHER...AMM