FXUS61 KPHI 220535
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
135 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation section for the 06Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday and Saturday
night with the possibility for some flooding. Unsettled weather
continues through early Sunday.

2. Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should last 
into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... A period of unsettled conditions for Saturday  
and Saturday night with the possibility for some flooding. 
Unsettled weather continues through early Sunday.

The upper H5 trough will remain across the East Coast Saturday
and Sunday before lifting away and weakening. There are still a
few short waves which will move NE across the Middle Atlantic.
There are two favored period for the rains, one is Sat. morning
and the second Sat evening and early overnight. These waves will
bring increased chances for showers and a few tstms thru the period.
Higher chances for rains are across Delmarva and south NJ with
categorical/likely pops and chance/slight chance pops will be
across the N/w areas Saturday. Pops for all areas are in the 50%
to 60% range for Saturday evening and then they decrease 
overnight. Patchy fog will develop overnight. 

One notable change from yesterday is that the systems appear to
be showing the higher QPF totals 'out to sea' . The higher totals
are now in the 1.0 to 1.5 inch range and will be across the NJ 
shore areas. Delmarva may also have some totals around an inch 
thru that period. A few of the CAMs show that a few isolated 
spots may have close to 2.0 inch totals. We'll continue to
monitor these trends. 

KEY MESSAGE 2...Fair weather is expected to return Monday and should
last into the middle of next week. 

More zonal flow with some subtle ridging moves in for the first half
of the week. At the surface, high pressure will mainly be in control,
resulting in dry and tranquil weather through Wednesday. Temperatures
should be seasonable through this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, 
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning...Generally VFR, though MVFR and possibly 
IFR VSBYs in BR at KRDG. CIGs may lower close to MVFR prior to 
12Z. LGT/VRB winds. Low confidence.

Today...MVFR CIGs in the morning, lifting to VFR at all but
KMIV/KACY. VSBY restrictions in RA/BR at KMIV/KACY from morning
through midday or so. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Tonight...CIGs lower to IFR with MVFR VSBYs. Scattered SHRA with
potential TSRA late. E-SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Low confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR or lower in SHRA/TSRA. Improving conds in the
afternoon.

Sunday night through Wednesday...VFR. NSW.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels tonight and Saturday. Winds
will be onshore 5 to 10 knots much of the time and seas on the ocean
will average 2 to 3 ft. Fair weather tonight and then showers and
a few tstms are expected Saturday. There are both greater chances
for rains and thunder across the southern NJ waters and DE/DE Bay
waters too. 

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms expected on the waters Saturday night then
only a chance for showers Sunday. 

Rip Currents...

For Saturday...Onshore winds around 10 MPH and multiple swell 
groups (one of which has a 12 to 14 second period) will result 
in a MODERATE risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore. 
Breaking waves will also be around 2 to 3 feet. For the Delaware
Beaches, winds should be lower with lower breaking waves, 
resulting in a LOW risk for rip currents.

For Sunday...Winds shift southwesterly around 5 to 15 mph with 
lessening influence from the longer period swells. Breaking 
waves will be closer to 1 to 2 feet. This will result in a LOW 
risk for rip currents at the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...OHara/Staarmann
AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Staarmann
MARINE...OHara/Staarmann