FXUS61 KPBZ 161754 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 154 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Some strong storms moving across the area associated with the cold front. A Freeze Watch was issued for Saturday night due to the high probability for temperatures to drop at/below 32F. No other significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty wind today. 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... In northern West Virginia (east of Wetzel County), building instability and the shear should result in a potential for storms to produce damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. There is some veering in the lower levels, with some limited potential for brief rotation should parameters briefly align, though the main threat should be from damaging wind gusts. The front should exit to the east by 4-5 PM, ending the severe storm potential for the following counties: Fayette (PA), Marion (WV), Monongalia (WV), Preston (WV), and Tucker (WV). Gusty winds are also expected outside of any convection, with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. However, there is only a 20% chance that gusts will exceed 30 mph tonight in areas of eastern Ohio. For areas along the higher terrain, gusts around 40 mph across the higher terrain, there is about a 50%-60% chance for gusts to exceed 30 mph tonight. The deepening upper-level trough is forecast to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight into tomorrow morning. Some lake enhancement is also possible as cold advection occurs. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning. There is a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges due to temperatures dropping into the upper 30s, otherwise, no snow is expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper-level trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, as the surface low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling Saturday night resulting in a frost/freeze potential. A Freeze Watch has been issued for region effective on Saturday night. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the upper-level closed low will break away from the trough and persist off of the SE Coast. Over the Western CONUS, another upper-level trough will become relatively stationary by Tuesday, following a Tropical Storm Simon. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A surface cold front will exit the region shortly after the 18z TAF issuance, resulting in ending the risks for gusts 30-45kts and heavier rain associated with its showers/thunderstorms. Broad ascent with the deepening trough to the SSW will favor fairly widespread light rain showers/drizzle through at least 00z with cigs occasionally varying between low MVFR to low VFR and limited visibility impacts. A reinforcing front causing a northerly wind shift aft 00z may result in a second wave of rain that better lowers visibility and offers low probability IFR cig chances. Though drying and subtle cig rises begin after this second frontal passage, cold advection coupled with warm lake waters may result in narrow bands of lake enhanced showers that maintain (or further lower) the fairly predominant MVFR stratus on going. Outlook... Lifting/breaking of residual MVFR to VFR stratocu expected by 14z Saturday as high pressure and ridging build over the region, with clear skies likely by 00z. There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078. OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. WV...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM/Lupo AVIATION...Frazier