FXUS61 KPBZ 161136 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 736 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal Risk for severe storms today includes most of western PA and northern WV. Probabilities for advisory level wind gusts (outside of convection) have also decreased. No other significant changes at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty wind today 2) Colder with frost and freeze conditions Saturday night, with frost possible again Sunday night 3) Dry and warmer next week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and isolated thunderstorms in warm advection will continue to cross the area this morning. Elevated instability and a low level jet should also enhance some of this activity until just before sunrise. A digging upper trough is expected to advance out of the Midwest today, as a deepening surface low tracks across Southern Ontario to New England. The low will pull a strong cold front across the area from mid morning into the afternoon. Increasing flow with a jet aloft will result in increasing shear, with building instability east of the front. Enough heating/instability for strong storms appear unlikely for much of Ohio, with an earlier FROPA. Further to the east, building instability and the shear should result in a potential for storms to produce damaging wind gusts as the front crosses. Winds at 10kft are progged to be around 60kt at the time of FROPA across wrn PA, with around 50 kt further to the south. There is a potential for damaging winds as a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms develops along the front later this morning into the afternoon. There is some veering in the lower levels, with some limited potential for brief rotation should parameters briefly align, though the main threat should be from damaging wind gusts. Gusty winds are also expected outside of any convection, with a tight pressure gradient and mixing. Probabilities of advisory level gusts have decreases according to the latest model data and BUFKIT momentum transfer procedures. Still, gusts from 30 to 35 mph will be likely thorough tonight, with gusts around 40 mph across the higher terrain. The highest elevations of eastern Tucker county could see gusts around 45 mph, but held off on a wind advisory at this time with the recent downward trend in expected wind gusts. The front should exit to the east by 4-5 PM, ending the severe storm potential. The deepening upper trough is then progged to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region later today into tonight, with some lake enhancement also possible as cold advection occurs. The precipitation should be tapering off by the time the coldest air arrives Saturday morning, so other than a potential for a few snowflakes mixing in north of I-80 and in the ridges, no snow is expected. KEY MESSAGE 2... The upper trough should exit the East Coast by late Saturday/Saturday night, as a low deepens/closes off the Carolina coast. Surface high pressure is expected to build across the Upper Ohio Valley region, with light wind and mainly clear skies. This should result in efficient radiational cooling, with a frost/freeze potential across the area. Frost advisories/freeze warnings may be needed. Some frost will be possible again Sunday night with surface high pressure overhead. KEY MESSAGE 3... Model ensembles indicate the closed low/trough should persist off of the SE Coast, with another trough over the Western CONUS. Areas from the Midwest to the Upper Ohio Valley region should be under a ridge, with dry weather expected from Sunday into late next week. Temperatures are also expected to moderate back to near or just above seasonable levels by mid week. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deepening low pressure systemand its surface cold front will cross the region today and procure two main rounds of rain. The first round is during the morning to early afternoon period along/ahead of the advancing surface cold front; expect falling cigs toward MVFR prior to and at onset of precipitation, shift from SW to W/WNW winds plus low probability for brief gusts meeting/exceeding 40kts, potential for heavier rain causing visibility restrictions, and limited lightning chance favoring locations near/SE of KPIT. The second round arrives roughly between 00z-08z tonight as the trough sags south and flow becomes more northerly, which better taps warm lake waters to enhance showers along a secondary front/wind shift. Lower in probability, this southward moving wave could create a brief period of light rain/drizzle with IFR cigs/vis. After the first round, the predominate weather is on and off light rain showers with gusty afternoon winds between 20-30kts that wane a bit at night with clouds that could bounce between low VFR to low MVFR levels. Precipitation chances fully end around 12z Saturday as subsidence/high pressure build from the rest. Outlook... Lifting/breaking of residual MVFR to VFR stratocu expected Saturday as high pressure and ridging build over the region. There is high probability for a prolonged period of VFR dry weather through next week, save for potential for localized morning river valley fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...Frazier