FXUS63 KPAH 232319
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-40% chance of patchy fog early Monday morning,
  especially along and northwest of the Ohio River. 

- Elevated isolated showers and storms may clip Carter and
  Ripley county Monday morning with a 30% chance of rainfall 
  between one to two tenths of an inch. 

- Temperatures will quickly return to more seasonable by
  Wednesday with an increase in humidity levels along with
  20-30% chance of daily showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A broad H5 trough with northwesterly flow is centered over the Ohio 
Valley this afternoon with sfc high pressure in control. Drier air 
above 800 mb has allowed for dewpoints to mix down into the upper 
50s in some spots with temperatures running about 5 degrees below 
normal. Mostly clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for 
radiational cooling. Leaned below NBM for low temperatures Monday 
morning that range from the mid 50s to low 60s. Patchy fog will be 
possible again with the probabilistic NBM/LAMP guidance supporting a 
20-40% chance. The other concern will be the potential for a 
elevated complex of storms to clip Carter and Ripley county as a H5 
shortwave approaches. Limited NBM PoPs to a 30% chance for a 
tenth or two inch of rainfall as most of the 12z CAMs have 
shifted more south towards the better instability. 

Temperatures quickly trend more seasonable by Wednesday as a warm 
front lifts north with humidity levels on the rise for the latter 
half of the week. The FA will remain sandwiched between an upper 
level ridge and trough that will send additional disturbances our 
way beginning Wednesday. Daily rain chances through Thursday only 
range from 20-30% with even lower chances heading into next weekend 
as another area of sfc high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Locations that get the coldest tonight, and have more sky
clearing, are the locations that are most likely to see fog
develop. High cloud cover is expected to remain over SEMO and
portions of southern IL. This may hinder fog development at CGI,
PAH, and MVN but is not a guarantee...therefore used a TEMPO
group for now. Winds should be calm overnight to light and
variable at times. Winds tomorrow will be light and variable and
will shift around to the northeast by late afternoon. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...HICKFORD