FXUS63 KPAH 222305
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
605 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-40% chance of widely scattered showers and
  thunderstorms this afternoon. An isolated gusty strong to
  severe storm cannot be ruled out, with the greatest risk over
  southeast Missouri.  

- A 30-40% chance of patchy fog is possible early Sunday 
  morning, especially across portions of western Kentucky and 
  southeast Missouri. 

- Temperatures and humidity levels will be seasonable next week
  with a 20-30% chance of daily isolated showers and 
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A trailing cold front associated with sfc low pressure over the 
Great Lakes region is pushing south across the FA. While most of the 
CAMs have very little development along the boundary this afternoon, 
the NSSL/RRFS still support some development that is currently
ongoing south of STL. Have increased NBM PoPs to a 20-40% 
chance across the southern counties where dewpoints will remain 
higher near 70 degrees. This translates to 3000 to 4000 J/kg of 
SBCAPE with about 35 kts of effective bulk shear. Combined with 
1000 J/kg of DCAPE and 8.0 to 8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates, 
the main concern will be damaging winds where SPC has a D1 
marginal. Overall, expecting coverage to be sparse at best, but 
the probability is the greatest over southeast Missouri. 

For tonight, a sfc ridge of high pressure begins to build south from 
Manitoba as a broad upper-level trough settles over the Ohio Valley 
with northwest flow. Clear skies will allow for the boundary layer 
to decouple, with a 30-40% chance of patchy fog. The greatest 
coverage is favored south of the Ohio River where the crossover
temperature will be higher. Otherwise, the FA will be between a
western 597 dm ridge over the southwest CONUS and a trough in
the northeast that will send a series of shortwaves downstream 
through the week. Rain chances are pretty sporadic at a 20-30% 
chance as the timing is highly variable. Not seeing a strong 
signal for severe weather, but may need to keep an eye on 
Wednesday when a warm front lifts north. The heat and humidity 
will remain at seasonable levels for the latter half of the 
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

With the exception of fog anticipated overnight at CGI, MVN, and
PAH, VFR conditions are expected. Fog is progged to develop at
the aforementioned sites around 08Z and last through around 12Z.
Winds will be very light to calm overnight with clear skies.
Tomorrow some high cirrus moves in during the day and winds are
out of the northwest around 5-7 kts generally.  

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...HICKFORD