FXUS63 KPAH 170522
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread frost is expected tonight amid a clear and cold
  night. Some locations may approach 32 degrees.

- A stable and dry pattern then locks in for at least several
  days on Sunday with mostly seasonable conditions expected with
  mild days and cool nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

As expected conditions are sharply cooler tonight across the
quad-state. Moderate northwest winds should continue overnight
with temperatures falling into the 40s area-wide. A 1040mb
surface ridge sits over the western Plains with plans of sitting
overtop of this region tonight. With plenty of drier air being
pushed in with this ridge, idealized radiational cooling
conditions amid deep layer ridging, and calm winds under the 
ridge axis very strong radiational cooling conditions are 
expected. Frost still looks likely enough area-wide to go with 
an advisory. Some areas particularly in the northern half of the
region could very well drop to freezing as things bottom out.

Good model consensus that the upper level pattern gets blocked
up for several days as we head into the new work week. With
ridging over the plains leading to surface ridging focused just
east of the area. Dry conditions with low humidity and 
seasonable temperatures look likely for several days amid a
stable/settled pattern. Highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in
the mid to upper 40s are projected, which is right in line with
seasonal norms.

A few Pacific troughs will take a shot at dislodging the ridging
through the end of the week, but in most all guidance they are
unsuccessful and sail well to the north of the region keeping 
the pattern in place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Patchy high MVFR cloudiness should gradually improve to full VFR
through the next few hours amid a steady north winds. Clear
skies are expected most of the day Saturday and into the evening with
winds becoming lighter as we go.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Sunday for 
     ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Sunday for 
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Frost Advisory from 9 PM CDT /10 PM EDT/ this evening to 8 AM 
     CDT /9 AM EDT/ Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CDT Sunday for 
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG