FXUS63 KPAH 161838
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
138 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Saturday night has a pretty good potential for a first frost across
  most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. A Frost 
  Advisory will likely be needed. 

- Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to
  around or slightly above normal for mid to late week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A large shortwave trof aloft swings through the region today and 
behind it upper ridging builds in. We have a tight sfc pressure 
gradient today behind last night/this morning's cold front. This is 
leading to breezy northwest winds today with gusts up to around 25 
mph at times. Significantly cooler temperatures today as well as we 
struggle to get out of the 50s. Winds are expected to remain breezy 
through most of tomorrow along with highs that will likely hover 
right around 60. 

Saturday night a potent sfc high slides through and off to the 
northeast by daybreak Sunday. With clear and calm to nearly calm 
conditions Saturday night, along with dewpoints in the 30s, we will 
likely see a first frost of the season across most of the CWA as 
lows dip into the 30s. There may even be some brief freezing 
temperatures in far west portions of the CWA. A Frost Advisory will 
likely be needed. 

With deep layer ridging in place for a little while, we can expect 
dry conditions and large diurnal temperature swings next week. 
Sunday kicks off a warming trend that will bring temperatures back 
up to normal and slightly above normal for mid to late week. Highs 
will generally be in the 70s and lows will generally be in the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

There is a brief period of VFR cigs (though still only around
3500 ft) this afternoon, then cigs come back down to MVFR around
or just after sunset. Drier air begins to move in overnight and
will lift cigs back to VFR and will slowly start to scatter out
the cloud deck. Clear skies are expected by mid morning
tomorrow. 

Breezy northwest winds continue this afternoon and into the
overnight with gusts up to around 25 kts at times. Winds turn
more northerly overnight, then northeasterly tomorrow morning.
Slightly less breezy conditions are expected tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD