FXUS64 KOUN 191914 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 - Cool, below normal temperatures today through Thursday. Near normal temperatures will return by the end of the week through early next week. - Shower and storm chances continue Wednesday through early next week. A few strong storms may be possible late this week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front has moved through all except the southeastern part of the forecast area, and the significant thunderstorms have moved out. But winds above the frontal boundary continue to be south/southwesterly and isentropic lift is developing around the 295K/300K surfaces. A few showers are beginning to develop this afternoon and are expected to increase as the southerly flow above the front (and therefore the isentropic lift) increases this tonight. Most models (the NAM being the exception) show very little elevated instability, so severe weather is not expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 Rain chances decrease early Wednesday as the isentropic lift decreases. But then shower/storm chances will increase Wednesday evening and especially Thursday as a mid-level trough approaches. Rainfall looks to be widespread on Thursday with this system. We will still be in this cooler post-frontal airmass, so no surface instability is expected and severe weather potential is low. Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east Thursday night as the trough moves to the east. High temperatures will be cool both Wednesday and Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026 A subtropical jet, with perturbations within the broader mid-level flow, will overspread the southern Plains through next weekend. This continuous mid-level flow will support daily thunderstorm chances through the weekend across our area. At this time, there is low confidence in severe weather during this timeframe. Temperatures will continue to be closer to seasonable through early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026 The cold front is through all TAF sites with north northeast winds expected through the period. Breezy winds will diminish through the day with wind speeds less than 15 knots by the afternoon. Showers and storms are lingering through across portions of central into southeast Oklahoma. Additional scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may develop later this evening and into the overnight hours. Confidence is low on the exact location of the scattered showers, along with the probability for thunder chances. Thus, the current TAF issuance includes PROB30s for showers and/or storms at all sites except WWR/DUA where chances and confidence were even lower. Amendments will be made where necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 54 70 58 71 / 60 20 60 90 Hobart OK 52 73 56 73 / 50 20 80 80 Wichita Falls TX 56 76 60 76 / 60 30 80 80 Gage OK 46 70 51 69 / 0 20 80 80 Ponca City OK 52 67 55 70 / 40 10 60 80 Durant OK 62 78 65 76 / 40 30 50 90 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...23