FXUS66 KOTX 232321 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 421 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming and drying trend Monday and Tuesday - Minor to moderate heatrisk Tuesday with highs in the 90s. - Breezy winds Wednesday into Thursday with elevated fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Isolated thunderstorms will move out of the area this evening and winds will subside. Temperatures warm Monday into Tuesday with afternoon highs in the 90s by Tuesday. The heat begins to break down Wednesday into Thursday with an increasing risk for breezy winds and mountain thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... This evening and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms impacting northeastern Washington and North Idaho will track to the east and come to an end before 6PM this evening. Gusty winds across the region will also subside with quiet weather conditions returning to the Inland NW overnight. Monday-Tuesday: The next low pressure settles into the Eastern Pacific allowing downstream heights to amplify over the Inland NW. This will promote a warming and drying trend with temperatures rebounding into the 80s to lower 90s Monday then 90s Tuesday. Winds will be light with diurnal, terrain influence. The greatest impacts to ongoing fires will be the warm and dry conditions along with increasing instability Tuesday afternoon as mixing heights increase near 10K ft AGL or higher. Wednesday-Thursday: The low pressure system off the coast will begin its slow journey inland. The latest consensus amongst the forecast models are for weaker impulses slinging out ahead of the main low to come through Tuesday night and again Wednesday. These impulses will help draw midlevel moisture northward toward the region though the moistening will be subtle and forcing weak leading to low confidence for high based showers and thunderstorms. The first wave arrives Tuesday with a glancing blow to far southeastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle. The second, slightly stronger impulse comes through Wednesday with a 5-20% chance for thunderstorms across the Idaho Panhandle and mountains along the International Border. The upper-low will eventually swing inland across southwestern BC/NW MT Wednesday night into Thursday. Timing will be key to how the winds play out Wednesday afternoon. At this time, timing suggest the low will close enough by late afternoon and early evening for winds to increase slightly during peak heating then continue to ramp up through the evening and overnight hours as cooler air floods inland. This would suggest a short period of breezy conditions overlapping with the hot/dry conditions. However, as previously mentioned, if timing is sooner, we could be looking at another critical fire weather day. Thursday does look breezy to windy across the region similar to what is occurring today (Sunday) as temperatures cool back from the 90s Wednesday to 80s Thursday. Would not rule out additional showers and storms along the Canadian border Wednesday night into Thursday with coverage largely isolated. Friday-Sunday: We see a lot more spread in the model guidance for late week into the weekend with the evolution of the next trough of low pressure. The general message is similar across the board that the Pac NW will continue to be influenced by another trough but how this comes through comes with many different flavors. Some are windy while others not so much. Same message for thunderstorm threats. The greatest confidence comes with temperatures being at or below normal for this time-frame and little to no signals widepsread precipitaiton events. /sb && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Otherwise, dry westerly flow will promote VFR conditions for all TAF sites along with breezy west to southwest winds through this evening. These winds will quickly decrease between 1z-4z this evening. Winds will slowly shift toward the north and northeast for KMWH, KGEG, KCOE, KPUW overnight. High clouds will filter in from the south in the late morning to early afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Main uncertainty and potential for forecast updates will be smoke into KEAT driving down visibility below 6SM. This comes with lower confidence given the elevated winds in place. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 53 87 55 94 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Coeur d'Alene 53 86 55 95 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Pullman 46 86 50 95 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Lewiston 56 92 60 99 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Colville 43 85 46 94 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Sandpoint 46 82 50 91 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Kellogg 51 84 53 94 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Moses Lake 54 89 57 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 88 64 94 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 88 58 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 2 PM PDT Monday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...None. && $$