FXUS61 KOKX 240259
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1059 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 03z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance of showers for both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. 
Isolated thunderstorm possible for Monday. Severe weather 
impacts are not expected.

2) More chances of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday and 
Friday. Low confidence in potential impacts at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Cold pool aloft with longwave troughing will be over the region for 
both Monday and Tuesday. Both afternoons could see instability 
showers for parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern 
Connecticut, and with slightly more CAPE and perhaps slightly steeper 
lapse rates, there could be an isolated rumble of thunder for 
Monday. NBM kept all areas dry both days, but have gone with slight 
chc PoPs for both afternoons. Severe wx not expected, but a strong 
gust could be possible on Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global models show a weak wave of low pressure approaching from our 
SW on Thursday and passing nearby or through the forecast area 
during Friday. Too early to have high confidence in potential 
impacts, but will need to keep an eye on trends for severe wx and 
flooding. At least isolated thunder would be around based on the 
track of storm, and at least minor flooding would be possible with 
an increase of PWATs. Time frame for greatest chance of impacts 
would be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front moves through this evening. A weak surface trough
may linger over the area on Monday.

Mainly, VFR through the TAF period. Chances are increasing for
isolated showers on Monday afternoon. Confidence is too low to
include in the TAF at this time.

Winds lighten this evening to VRB or light out of the W/SW. 
Gusts Monday afternoon likely a bit stronger than today, as high
as 20 to 25 kt. An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

An isolated gust up to 30 kt can't be ruled out Monday
afternoon.

Isolated showers are possible Monday afternoon, but confidence 
is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. WSW gusts 15-20 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Light WSW/SW winds.

Thursday-Friday: VFR Thu AM, becoming sub VFR with SHRA/TSRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain
below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast
period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for Monday followed by
a low risk of rip currents on Tuesday for the Atlantic facing
beaches. SE swell on both days is anticipated.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC