FXUS61 KOKX 231444
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1044 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chances for showers and thunderstorms into this afternoon 
ahead of a cold frontal passage. Some thunderstorms could be 
strong with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

2) Possible lingering showers Monday into early Monday evening.
Otherwise mainly dry with high pressure eventually building back
in Monday night into midweek.

3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Heights lowering in mid levels as a closed low moves eastward.
This will introduce colder temperatures aloft and help keep up
convective chances.

Ahead of a wave of low pressure, low level environment will
become more unstable. CAMs depict convection developing more
rapidly this morning especially with diurnal heating. The focus
seems to be the first half of the day as CAMs really start
depleting convective coverage late afternoon into the evening.

This will be a high shear, low CAPE environment so there is
potential for some thunderstorms to be strong to even severe.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Threats with
thunderstorms will be heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail.
There is a marginal risk for damaging winds and large hail. The
thunderstorms are expected to be moving fast enough with the
shear to mitigate flooding potential. However, minor flooding
will still be a possibility with the thunderstorms, especially
for low lying, urban and poor drainage areas.

Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values through
today.

.KEY MESSAGE 2... 
The closed low in the mid levels will continue slowly moving
east tonight through Monday and will then slowly move farther
northeast. The heights continue to lower tonight through Monday
and then will start to rise Monday night. National blend of
model dataset keeps dry conditions but CAMs indicate otherwise
for Monday with diurnal instability. Would expect isolated to
widely scattered showers on Monday with a slight chance of
thunderstorms as well. Manually put this in the forecast
because national blend of models is not reflecting this
potential in its forecast. 

Otherwise, mainly dry conditions tonight through Monday. A
higher confidence of dry conditions for the entire area Monday
night through midweek with high pressure building in from the
west. Aloft, the height rises continue and the pattern
transitions from a trough to quasi-zonal.

Temperatures do not deviate much from normal values tonight
through midweek.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Model guidance continues to show an upper level trough pushing
southeast into the Northeast Thursday into Friday. At the
surface, areas of low pressure approach from the west. This will
be associated with an approaching frontal system. 

The forecast has increasing chances of showers Thursday, with 
showers becoming likely Thursday night for most locations. The
forecast showers continue into Friday. There will be possible
thunderstorms as well but those probabilities will be less than
the showers.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front moves through later today, before high pressure 
gradually builds from the west Monday.

Line of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to push
through eastern LI and S CT, with conditions improving to VFR
behind it. MVFR cigs could still linger at times at terminals 
off to the west for an hour or two. Continue to hold onto 
PROB30s this afternoon for TSRA given potential for additional 
convection to fire ahead of the trailing cold front. Chances 
decrease after 19Z or so. All terminals eventually improve to 
VFR this afternoon. 

Windsbecome SW or WSW into late morning and early afternoon,
speeds generally at or under 10 kt outside of any thunderstorms.
Gusts up to 20 kt later this afternoon are possible for some 
terminals.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... 

Amendments possible for changing conditions.

Timing of any SHRA/TSRA this afternoon could be off by an hour.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday through Wednesday: VFR. WSW gusts around 20 kt Monday PM.

Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and PM SHRA.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions on the marine zones are still expected to remain
below small craft advisory thresholds during the marine forecast
period. Pressure gradient overall remains relatively weak.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk is expected for both today and 
Monday. The swell will be primarily from the SE.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM