FXUS61 KOKX 221814 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 214 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. 2) After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal to closer to normal. 3) Chances for showers and thunderstorm return towards the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Rounds of showers this weekend, possible thunderstorms. Marginal severe risk Sunday into Sunday evening. The weather pattern taking shape for this weekend is unsettled featuring cyclonic flow aloft and surface low pressure not too far away from the local area. Deep shear present much of the time for the area near 30-35 kt. 500mb forecast model charts indicate a faster decline of heights tonight through the rest of the weekend. Strong shortwave moves into Great Lakes today and then moves southeast of the Great Lakes tonight into early Monday. At the surface, behind one wave of low pressure along a front, another low pressure wave approaches late tonight. The wave of low pressure also passes northeast of the region early Sunday. While model PWATs indicate near 2 inches with the wave of low pressure, the pattern is progressive and convective elements are expected to exhibit a sufficient translational speed to mitigate flooding potential. Also related to this is where the higher chances of thunderstorms are forecast which for tonight is more across parts of Long Island where flash flood guidance is higher. Overall, expect any flooding to stay minor nuisance within urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. However, the trough of low pressure will still be near the area. This will be an associated cold front moving through the area Sunday but weakening and dissipating Sunday night. Dewpoints will be trending higher and the air will be more humid. Despite this, PWATs are actually decreasing Sunday into Sunday night with relatively more shear compared to the previous day. CAPE will be limited with all the clouds and shower activity before the cold front moves in. Still though in this low CAPE high shear environment, a thunderstorm could quickly mature and become strong with a quick downburst of wind. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for much of the area Sunday into Sunday evening. The limiting factor will be the decreasing moisture in the atmosphere which will not allow for much expansion of convection and limit its coverage. .KEY MESSAGE 2... After possible lingering showers Monday, prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather next week Monday night though midweek. Temperatures trend from below normal Monday through Tuesday to closer to normal Tuesday night through Wednesday. Still have quite a bit of cyclonic flow aloft Monday with deep trough cutoff low making its way across the Northeast. The center of the cutoff upper level low is well north of the local area. Another weak cold front moves across Monday night but will not have much moisture associated with it. The POPs will be pretty low with this front and a lot of locations may very well end up staying dry. Models coherent on an area of positive vorticity maxima moving into the local region Monday morning into Monday afternoon. While there is a lot of westerly flow, models are struggling to depict much if any precipitation and why the national blend of models is dry. However, the cyclonic flow aloft and positive vorticity advection will present strong forcing for more clouds and some shower or thunderstorm activity. Coverage only isolated to widely scattered for any showers and thunderstorms. More height rises seen in the mid levels Monday night through midweek. A pattern change is evident within the forecast models of a transition from cyclonic cutoff low to quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, after the cold front Monday night, another cold front moves across Tuesday night, followed by weak high pressure heading into the middle of the week. Dry conditions are expected to prevail with more westerly flow getting established within the atmosphere. .KEY MESSAGE 3... The models are forecasting the approach of another frontal system from the west along with an upper level trough towards the latter part of next week. This will make for a return to a more unsettled weather pattern. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak wave of low pressure slowly approaches from the south this afternoon into tonight, passing through some terminals Sunday morning. VFR this afternoon except MVFR east of the city. All terminals lower to IFR late tonight with showers and eventually improve back to VFR Sunday afternoon. Although cannot rule out thunder as early as early this evening, better overall chances (noted with PROB30) start after sunrise on Sunday with the approach and passage of the low center and subsequent approach of a weak cold front/trough later in the day. Winds mainly E to SE under 10kt through tonight, shifting briefly SE to S Sunday morning, then SW by around noontime for most terminals. Terminals east of NYC shift SW later in the day. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Shift to E-SE at KLGA may be off by an hour or two. For all terminals, IFR might not happen tonight with conds instead remaining MVFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday: VFR with SW gusts 15-20kt. Monday through Wednesday: VFR. SW gusts around 20kt on Monday afternoon. Thursday: VFR AM, chance of sub-VFR and -shra PM. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Pressure gradient remains relatively weak through the forecast period. Conditions on the forecast marine zones stay below SCA thresholds. Rip Currents: The rip current risk with very light winds today looks to be overall low. With increasing southerly winds Sunday, more of a moderate rip current risk is expected. The swell will still have southerly and easterly components. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ AVIATION...JC