FXUS61 KOKX 190714 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 314 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Hot weather thru Wed. A heat advisory remains in effect for NE NJ and NYC. 2) An isold tstm is possible today. A cold front produces scattered tstms on Wed with damaging winds the main severe threat. 3) Much cooler airmass expected Thursday into the holiday weekend with chances of showers. 4) Cold water safety concerns continue this week with good boating weather, and water temperatures still in the 50s. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Offshore high pressure and increasing low level SW warm air advection will make for much warmer temperatures today and Wednesday as well. Heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC Metro 11AM today to 8PM Wednesday. This is the first high heat index event of the year for NE NJ and NYC. Warmest day is today with SW flow and daytime mixing. Temperatures in the 90s for all of NYC, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and much of interior Southern CT as well as much of Nassau County NY. Mid to upper 90s for high temperatures much NE NJ and NYC Metro for temperatures and heat indices. Dewpoints are mostly in the low 60s today. Slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. This same distribution exists for high temperatures on Wednesday as well but a few degrees cooler on average. The dewpoints increase ahead of the cold front Wednesday with values mainly in the low to mid 60s. So for Wednesday, temperatures a little less than the previous day but dewpoints a little higher than the previous day. Highs mostly in the lower 90s Wednesday for much of NE NJ and NYC with corresponding heat indices in the mid 90s. Again, slightly cooler high temperatures and heat indices for Brooklyn and Queens but still getting in the mid 90s especially for northern portions of those zones. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Subsidence and a lack of upr lvl support should limit convective chances today, but there is a chance that an isold tstm is triggered mainly across the interior this aftn where there will be high CAPE and no CIN. Best severe chances if initiation does occur could be interior CT into the Lower Hudson Valley invof the CAPE gradient. NBM pops are generally dry, despite a Marginal Risk from SPC. Stuck with the NBM pops for now and will see what mesoscale analysis yields today. No change to the fcst thinking for Wed. The cold front looks to move in first for Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT latter half of the afternoon and then crosses through the NYC Metro and coastal sections by early evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon through early Wednesday evening. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail. Flooding threat minimal with the westerly flow in the atmosphere and quick steering flow. However, a quick period of heavy rain and possible minor flooding cannot be ruled out with some thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Mid level ridge suppressed for late week into the holiday weekend with quasi-zonal flow. At the surface, high pressure moves in from the Great Lakes Thursday but then moves northward into Northern New England and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the holiday weekend. In its place, low pressure approaches from the south and west. Model variances on how far north the low reaches. Max temperatures forecast decrease by near 15 to 20 degrees for Thursday compared to the previous day. Max temperatures are around 70 on Thursday. Northerly flow presents downslope warming first half of the day, allowing for coastal locations to berelatively warmer than inland. Cooling trend continues Friday with high temperatures forecast mainly in the mid 60s to near 70 and then just low to mid 60s for most locations on Saturday. Overall, the low level flow will become more easterly really limiting the daytime warmth with more maritime influence. Along with that aside from Thursday and Friday which are forecast to be mainly dry, there will be an increasing chance of showers heading into the holiday weekend with high pressure getting farther away and low pressure approaching from the south and west. .KEY MESSAGE 4... Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic with a frontal system over the mid section of the country slowly approaching the terminals into Wednesday. VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly NW of the NYC metro. Confidence in the occurrence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. SSW-SW winds under 10 kt early this morning increase to 10-15 kt mid to late morning and early afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt are possible in the afternoon and early evening with a few coastal terminals potentially seeing gusts up to 25 kt. There is a chance gusts will end up occasional. Any gusts should end around 00z with sustained wind speeds gradually weakening below 10 kt tonight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may end up occasional this afternoon. Very low chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly west of the NYC terminals this afternoon/early evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Low chance for IFR or lower conditions at KGON. Wednesday: VFR, giving way to possible MVFR or lower with Showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. S/SW winds gusts 20-25kt day into eve. NW windshift in the evening with gusts ending. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Chance of showers and MVFR conditions. Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E-NE wind gusts 15-20 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Increasing SW flow will produce SCA winds and seas on the ocean thru Wed. Marginal elsewhere, especially the LI back bays where winds will be close this aftn thru Wed. Conditions improve for Thu and Fri behind the cold front, then worsen on Sat as ely winds increase and seas build. There could be sct strong tstms invof the front on Wed. Cold water safety concerns this week as water temperatures remain in the 50s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia and physical incapacitation to anyone suddenly immersed in the water. Anyone going out on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 98/1962 KBDR: 89/2017 KNYC: 99/1962 KLGA: 96/2017 KJFK: 92/2017 KISP: 89/2017 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 19: KEWR: 67/1986 KBDR: 66/2017 KNYC: 68/1986 KLGA: 68/2017 KJFK: 67/2017 KISP: 65/2017 May 20: KEWR: 72/1996 KBDR: 61/2019 KNYC: 74/1996 KLGA: 77/1996 KJFK: 63/1996 KISP: 62/1996 && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-103>108. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$